The Impact Of Economic Growth On Tax Revenues, A Research Through Path Analysis And Empirical Research

Tax revenue plays an important part in financial income,and provides a necessary support when government intends to take proactive fiscal policy in China.Generally speaking,economy decides tax,and at the same time,tax has a counteractive influence on economy. Since1994,in which year Chinese government take a reform in tax system,tax maintains an rapid growth rate.As we know,the growth rate of tax has exceeded that of economy.This extraordinary growth suddenly becomes smaller in2012so that the gap between growth rate of tax revenue and economic growth was essentially flat in recent years.So this is an interesting phenomenon which deserve our careful study.This article chooses the relationship between tax and economic growth as the point of view,and conduct the research to this question.At first,we should have a basic understanding of the relationship between the growth rate of tax and economy from the theoretical aspects.Then we conduct an empirical analysis from two aspects of the economic gross and economic structure.When we take an empirical analysis on the relationship between the gross economy and tax,we choose GDP,consumption, fixed assets investment,export as the explanatory variables of TAX.When study this question from different ways,include path principle and cointegration test,We get an econometric model about the relationship between gross economy and tax.When come to the question about the relationship between tax and economic structure,we make the rate of change in industrial structure as the index.We then come to the conclusion that consumption’ growth has the greatest impact on tax revenue growth, growth in tax revenue will increase0.31%for each1%increase in the amount of consumption growth; while tax revenue will increase of only0.11%for each1%increase growth in the amount of the growth in the amount of investment.In the analysis of the impact which industrial structure adjustment on tax revenues, we then come to the conclusion thatthe rate of change in total tax revenue will rise by4.19%for every1%increase in industrial structure ratio, which comprised by3.87%growth in turnover taxrevenue, and4.987677%growth in income taxrevenue.In all the above measurement analysis, this study have adopted a stepwise regression method to exclude the impact of multicollinearity,and adopted Johansan to test the stability of the data. Cointegration test had be conducted to determine whether there is a long-term equilibrium relationship betweenvariables.At last,we give some suggestions on how to maintain the coordination of economic development and tax.