The Analysis On The Influence Of The Change In The Industrial Structure Upon The Economic Growth In Hubei Province

There is a close relationship between the industrial structure and economic growth in usual. To a certain extent, change in the industrial structure is able to promote economy to grow steadily, and the continued growth of economy also requires the industrial structure changes accordingly. Currently, most parts of China are in a stage of fast economic growth, and upgrading the industrial structure is bound to become one of the measures to maintain a high economic growth rate. However, probably, the relationship between changes in the industrial structure and economic growth is not the same among different regions. Then, to Hubei Province, does the change in the industrial structure have an impact on economic growth? What is the consequence? These Problems are what this article attempts to explore.This article is aimed to discover the effect of the change in the industrial structure to economic growth in the process of economic development of Hubei Province according to an econometric analysis which is based on the economic development statistics in Hubei Province during1978-2011. In addition to the introduction, this thesis is divided into five parts. Firstly, making a statistical analysis of the status quo of Hubei economic growth and change in the industrial structure. Secondly, Through qualitative analysis on the mechanism of effects what change in the industrial structure have on economic growth, it is found that influence from two main aspects:(1) changes in the industrial structure is capable to promote economic growth by optimizing the efficient allocation of resource;(2) changes in the industrial structure is capable to promote economic growth by replacing leading industry. On the basis of above, this article builds an econometric model between the change in the industrial structure and economic growth, and makes a Granger causality test. Results display that:in Hubei province, the industrial structure change affects the economic growth significantly, while the economic growth is not a apparent reason to the change of industrial structure. With the results, the thesis estimates the marginal contribution of the three industries devote to the economic growth through the metering method, and the results show that:the secondary industry makes the greatest contribution to economic growth, the tertiary industry and first industry ranks second and third individually. Finally, according to the conclusions both from the theoretical and empirical, this article states that during the development of industry in Hubei province should follow the law of evolution and the characteristics of local resources, seize the opportunities of urbanization and construction of two types of society, and give full play to science and technology, to promote industrial structure in Hubei adjust steadily and rapidly.