The Research And Analysis Of The Prediction Model Of Demand For Loans About Agricultural Development Bank Of China In County Level

This study mainly analysis the relationship of county regional agriculturaleconomic development situation and demand scale for loans. Taking the Yi-HuangCounty in Jiang-Xi province as a example, this research collects a lot of index data onCounty-Level Agricultural Development Bank’s demand scale for loan funds, andfind out the related index with it by the method of Person analysis. Then, this researchanalysis the late change tendency of each index by the gray forecasting model GM (1,1) and try to use multiple linear regression model to forecast the scale of loan capitaldemand County of the Agricultural Development Bank, and give the appropriatenumerical simulation results of this county. The main conclusions are as follows:(1)There is a positive correlation between the data index economic development ofagriculture and the agricultural development bank’s demand scale for capital loans inYi-Huang county. Among them, the main economic indicators having a impact on thescales of county agriculture development bank loans are: GDP, fiscal revenue,per-capital net income of farmers, social total retail sales of consumer goods andgrain yield.(2)Taking the problem of demand scale for loans about agricultural developmentbank in Yi-Huang County as an example, the numerical simulation results shows thatit is a more useful try that the multiplex GM (1,1) regression model reached theexpected goal based on gray theory.(3)From2014to2018, the scale of loan demand about agricultural developmentbanks in Yi-Huang County generally will have a gradual upward trend, but what weneed to pay attention to is that the rate of increase will significantly slow downcompared with2011.