Gdp Forecast Based On Gray System Theory

Data mining is a technique to draw useful information from data, which combines various techniques together, such as artificial intelligence, statistics, computer and database, etc. One of its important functions is prediction. Grey prediction method based on the grey system theory is an indispensable means used in the research of data mining.Grey system theory takes the uncertainty system with small samples and poor information as research objects. It mainly draws valuable information out of the partial already known, and its aim is to realize the correct description and effective control of system running and evolution rule. Grey prediction is forecast to grey-system. Because its working principle is very simple and the forecast result is very accurate, this kind of prediction method is applied and effective.Combining data mining techniques and grey system theory together, this article puts forward a new method which could be used to forecast the local GDP. It can not only save a lot of working time but also well deal the non-linear relations between different factors.First by using grey system theory we could set up a series of grey prediction models to forecast the local GDP through the systemic analysis of the GDP from 2000 to 2005 of Zhengzhou city;and then on the base of the qualitative analysis of the different factors that influence the local GDP amount, we could reckon the degree of grey incidence between these factors by using the method of grey relational analysis. After that we could easily find the primary factors that impact the local GDP of Zhengzhou city and set up grey relevancy prediction models to do the simulation forecasting of the local GDP in the past years. Finally based on the comparison of different prediction results, we could choose a comparatively logical prediction model. The results indicate that the finial prediction model is logical and effective; In the article also use it to forecast the GDP of Zhengzhou city in the future five years, which could give the government scientific reference to make the proper economic policy.