The Research Of Real-Estate Price Fluctuationg Under The Perspective Of Behavioral Finance Theory

Housing as an integral part of people’s basic needs,it’s very important for the development of the national economy and the improvement of people’s living standards.In recent years,irregular appearance are emerging in the real estate market.The original meaning of explaining of the price fluctuations supporting by traditional financial theory has been lost.And the development of behavioral finance theory offers a new perspective to studying the real estate market.The theory is based on the real psychology and behavior of human. Through the analyzing of actors preferences and decision-making, it can explain the market irregular appearance.This article is based on the theory to analysis the irrational behavior in the real estate market theoretically.The article main content is as follows.First of all, the participants of the real estate market is divided into two main parts in this paper.One is the micro-economic entities, including the real estate developers, buyers and financial institutions.Another is the policy-makers that we call them the government departments, including the central government and local governments.Theoretical analysis the impact of these two type subject’s behavior to the price fluctuations.The second, basing on the three factors from behavioral or psychological factors of micro subject which was extracted by Previous,it try extracting feed forward and feedback trading factor.And according to the role and nature of the concept in the process of conducting market it is quantified using the formula.Then,because of defects in behavioral finance theory itself,and theoretical system of systems is not yet formed for now, and VAR model also has the advantage that it was not on the basis of economic and financial theory.The results show that policy authorities act the role of China’s real estate market is"Increase effective, down little".Micro economic behavior also affects the real estate price fluctuations by the extracted four factors.The analysis on the impulse response function found that the impact by herding effect factors and countermeasures factor stimulates the prices positively.The adverse selection factors and positive feedback trading factors inhibit the prices.And the impact of the role of these four factors is not always sustained.The last, based on the summary of the conclusions it offer a proposal for the development of China’s real estate market from the angle of real estate developers, property buyers, financial institutions and policy authorities.Real estate developers should broaden the direct financing channels to reduce the risk and they should establish a rational development view.The buyers should learn more knowledge of investment and learn to control their emotions,to avoid blind conformity.Financial institutions should improve the risk prevention system and strengthen the management of credit officers.Policy authorities should to strengthen the disclosure of information and to reduce the impact of irrational factors.