Analysis Of Influencing Factors Of Real Estate Price Fluctuation In Heilongjiang Province Based On VAR Model

With the market-oriented reform of real estate throughout the country,the real estate industry in Heilongjiang Province has risen rapidly from scratch,and the rapidly developing real estate industry has boosted the growth of the national economy of the province,while also improving the people's living standards and promoting urbanization.huge contribution.House prices are the benchmarks for real estate economic operations and market mechanism adjustments.From the perspective of housing prices in Heilongjiang Province,the prices of commercial housing rose from 1,609 yuan/m~2 in 1999 to 6,479 yuan/m~2 in 2017,regardless of inflation,and the average price of housing is increased each year.The growth rate was 15.93%.The analysis of the factors that affect the price fluctuations in Heilongjiang Province and the reasons for the sharp increase in housing prices in 2017 are of great significance to the steady and healthy development of the entire economy and the improvement of people's living standards.Firstly,domestic and foreign scholars on real estate prices and the VAR model in the real estate research field are combed.The selected price of real estate in Heilongjiang Province represents the price level of the real estate market in Heilongjiang Province.The qualitative analysis and quantitative anal ysis are the research methods,The impact of various factors on the price fluctuations of commercial housing in Heilongjiang Province and the degree of influence and the proposal to curb the rapid rise in housing prices are the contents of the study.Second,starting from the supply,demand and other factors,qualitative analysis of the impact of various factors on price fluctuations in Heilongjiang Province.The real estate development investment amount,land cost,population size,residents' income level,money supply,economic development level,psychological expectation,and urban planning have a positive effect on housing prices in Heilongjiang Province.The completed housing area and interest rates have an adverse effect on housing prices.The effect of the conclusion.Again,on the basis of qualitative analysis,select the average sales price of commercial housing in Heilongjiang HP,total real estate development investment IA,completed area SA,per capita disposable income IN,elderly dependency rati o ODEP,money supply M2 and real estate development enterprises in place The seven variables of the domestic loan fund BL construct VAR models,collect and organize 61 sets of data from the first quarter of 2003 to the first quarter of 2018 for quantitative analysis,and quantify the impact of various factors on price fluctuations in Heilongjiang Province.The results show that per capita disposable income,housing completion area,and psychological expectations have the greatest contribution to housing prices,and other factors also have a certain impact.It is concluded that the imbalance between supply and demand is the main reason for the rapid rise in house prices in Heilongjiang Province in 2017.Finally,according to the qualitative analysis and quant itative analysis conclusions,combined with the development of the real estate market in Heilongjiang Province,it is proposed that the government 's focus on curbing excessive price increases is to provide a good supply management for the real estate market,improve the supply system,and increase the real estate market.Supply;Second,to achieve real estate market demand management,to protect the normal housing demand,to combat investment speculative demand;Third,strengthen the expected management of the real estate market;Fourth,the use of credit policies,tax policies to regulate the real estate market.