The Study On Systemic Risk Of China’s Listed Banks From The Perspective Of Macro Prudence

Since the outbreak of global financial crisis, its huge destructiveness and severe impact has highlighted the vulnerability of global financial system, strengthened the hidden danger of systemic risk, and greatly threatened the stability of bank system. This time’s crisis has exposed the natural defects of micro-prudential supervision in its function and effect. Under such a background, to prevent banking systemic risk from happening and also to fill up the deficiency of single micro-prudential supervision whose main purpose is to keep the stability of micro mechanism, this paper plays the key points of post-crisis supervision reform in macro-prudential regulation frame which aims at preventing banking systemic risk. The study of the prevention of banking systemic risk under the frame of macro-prudential regulation not only has important theoretical value but also much realistic significance.This paper first starts with the systemic risk, concludes and outlines the theory frame of systemic risk, clarifies similar theories, concludes the characters of systemic risk, discriminates the causes of risk, summarizes risk transmission mechanism; second, it makes a complete analysis of the present condition of banking systemic risk in our country, generalizes the present development condition of banks in our country and the affects of macroeconomic environment on the formation of systemic risk; it uses real diagnosis analysis method, basing on the16listed banks, studies the cumulative effect and depth effects of banking systemic risk; explores pro-cyclicality of listed banks by ARMA model, and further, analyzes its long-term equilibrium relation with real economy and macro-economic situation.After the study of systemic risk, from the perspective of macro prudence, the paper discusses the macro-prudential regulation of banking systemic risk in our country from different levels. Basing on the introduction of the general theory about prudential regulation of banking systemic risk, summarizes and concludes the content of macro-prudential regulation in our country’s bank industry and the macro-prudential regulation strategies which are specific to our county. After the summary of present condition of banking systemic risk in our country, put forwards the existing problems in macro-prudential regulation in our country. At last, under the frame of macro-prudential regulation, this paper offers prevention measures and suggestions to our country’s banking systemic risk.