A Study On The Risk Early Evaluation Of The Local Government Bebt

As the development of China’s economic, the spending of local governmentincreased year by year. After the tax reform, local government as an independenteconomic entity tax revenue, the central government transfer payments dependdeepened, so that the fiscal gap is growing. In order to solve financial difficulties andshortage of funds, the local government take various means to ensure localinfrastructure and economic growth. Due to the special national conditions, China’slocal government debt presented in the form of complex, low transparency inland-based financial security, lack of supervision and etc. In response to the outbreak ofthe financial crisis in2008, our country take4trillion economic stimulus plan, let localgovernment debt scale growth, risk further accumulation. The Greek sovereign debtcrisis is a wake-up alarm for China’s local government debt problem. the State Councilattached great importance to local government debt problem.In the second half of2009began to require the relevant department forinvestigation, and introduced a regulating the behavior of local government financingplatform company management and debt. The National Audit Office also formed aspecial team to audit and disclosure government debt across all parts of the country. nthe first three quarters of2014, the State Council issued a number of documents tostrengthen budget management, strictly limited levels of government borrowingprogram and the use of funds. Therefore, how to control the size of the debt, in the playwhile promoting economic effects do its risk control, became the local governments atall lever urgently need to address the problem. This article select city (country level) inZhejiang province as an example to carry on the local government debt risk earlywarming research, hope to have targeted early warming of local government debt.This article consists of five parts, the first part introduces the background, andthen analyzes the theoretical and practical significance of the topic, research ideas andframeworks, cited innovation literature review of local government debt and theassociated risks and deficiencies of this article. The second chapter is mainly to atheoretical definition of the government debt risk, from the perspective of economictheory to analyze the motives government borrowing. The third chapter is to describethe status of government debt statistics, thereby establishing an early warning model for our necessity analysis, and finally to establish the local government debt early warningsystem. The fourth chapter is on government debt and the status of X City, ZhejiangProvince elaborate for AHP and fuzzy rating method for risk selection and range of eachindex risk indicators were considered, as well as X City, Zhejiang Province in2008-2012evaluation of the risk profile of years. The fifth chapter is mainly about theappropriate advice and suggestions that given to the X City, Zhejiang Province on therisk control.