Study On Forecast And Analysis Of Land Change In Duchang County

Land is the material basis of human production and life, land change is result of acombination of natural processes and human activities; Analysis of land change process,characteristics, causes and trends can help to optimize the structure of land use, improve the rate ofland utilization and realize the sustainable development of population, resources and environment.Duchang county adjacent to the Poyang Lake, a vast waters and the level value of lake was differin different seasonal, and has an impact on agricultural production; In recent years, regionalpopulation increase, agricultural production, urban construction has accelerating the space-timechange of land, but also produced a contradiction between people,environment and other issues. Asthe concept of "Ecological Economic Zone of The Poyang Lake" put forward, how to"development in the limited, and protection in the development" has become an important part ofthe economic construction and environmental protection in Duchang.In this paper, first of all, according to the present situation of land use classification standards,combined with the feature of Duchang County topography, land type, remote sensing imageimaging season, developed a set of suitable for the area of remote sensing image interpretation,using ENVI and ArcGIS for processing the TM/ETM and DEM, and extracting the foundationdata, then combined with the land transfer matrix, the land use dynamic, ArcGIS spatial model andlandscape index, analysis of characteristics of land change nearly20years in Duchang County;Secondly, research the relationship between the factors as slope, elevation, road, administrativecentre and the distribution of land type; Then using Markov model to predict the future landquantity change, and according to the characters of model and calculation results to improved theinitial probability matrix; Finally, In accordance with the characteristics of the land change and theimpact factors, determine characteristics constraints and suitability of land transformation, usingthe improved transfer probability matrix and CA-Markov model to analysis the land type change inDuchang County.Through the experimental analysis and research, found that in recent20years, agriculturalland and forest land are the main land cover types in Duchang County, unused land reduced yearby year, construction land and farmland increased year by year, the change of waters and forestland in the later amplitude is less than the previous; Among them, the construction land andfarmland are mainly distributed in slope as0to6degrees with height less than60meters of area,while82.14%of forest distribution more than30meters in elevation and slope for6to25degrees range;County administrative center of construction activity and the population spatial attraction issuperior to the township(town) administrative center; Before and after the highway built, degree ofsurrounding land change from strong to weak, ordinary more easily to be near by residential areas;First using the weighted average calculate method to improved the transition probability matrix,and then apply it to the Markov model to forecast the areas of land in2008in Duchang County,compared with the simulation results of the original one, the average number of error absolutevalue has decreased by6.22%, it means the prediction accuracy was improved, finally to combineit with CA-Markov model simulating space changes have achieved good results.