Study On Land Use/Land Cover Change And Its Driving Force In Runan County

Land use and land cover changes(LUCC)has been the focus and the frontier problem of globalchange research. With the rapid development of our country economy and the increase of population, thepattern of land use has changed. The study on the LUCC and the driving mechanism of LUCC is becomingone of the focuses of the LUCC study.On the basis of databases consisted of land use/land cover(created using three Landsat5TMimages of Runan County for1987,2004and2011)and the socio-economic statistics, temporal-spatialcharacteristics of land use change and land use types of Runan County were analyzed systematically by useof the “RS” and “GIS” technique. The trend of the LUCC in recent years by Markov model was predicted.Using PCA, the socio-economic driving forces was quantitatively analyzed of LUCC. The main resultswere as follows:(1)In the sight of the change range of land use from1987to2011, the area of arable land,unutilized land and water area decreased, but the urban land and forestland increased.(2)In the change speed of land use, the decreasing speed were respectively unutilized land, waterarea and arable land form fastest to slowest, and the increasing speed were respectively urban land andforestland from fastest to slowest.(3)In the study periods, the spatial Pattern of the Runan County arable land change is that therelative change rate of exurban villages and towns is smaller, but that of suburban villages and towns islarger. The spatial Pattern of urban land is that the relative change rate was on the decrease from suburbs toouter suburbs.(4)Land use degree index increased in study periods. The ratio of land use degree was bigger thanzero. As a whole, the land use in Runan County was in an expansion period, but there was also an obviousdifferentiation of spatial distribution of land use degree change. Land use degree of various villages andtowns was in the expansion period.(5)In the sight of spatial change of land use, the change trend of cultivated land gravity center issouthwest, but that of urban land is northeast. (6)Using principal component analysis, the driving force for land use in the Runan County wasmainly social and economic factors, the level of urbanization and industrial structure had an importantimpetus function to the change of land use, he per area yield of grain also played an driving role in thechange of land resources.(7)Using Markov model, the change trend of land use was forecasted. The area of arable land,unutilized land and water area will continue to decrease, corresponding, the area of urban land willcontinue to increase. Forestland area will first increase then slightly decrease.