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Empirical Study On Large-country Effect Of China’s Petroleum And Photovoltaic

Posted on:2016-02-10Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:L ChengFull Text:PDF
GTID:2309330467493423Subject:Applied Economics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
China takes an important position in the energy supply and demand trade, but this big advantage didn’t make more interest, China get into trade dilemma. In this paper, taking petroleum imports and photovoltaic exports as examples, using large-country effect with a perspective to interpret the dilemma, that is the import or export quantity affects the international price.Firstly, by correlation coefficient and building Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and Granger causality test, China’s petroleum and photovoltaic trade has large-country effect, and the large-country effect is negative effect.,that is the greater China’s imports, the higher price, the greater export quantity, the lower price. The reasons in the behind chapter on the negative effect of petroleum and photovoltaic are international market power and trade rigidity.Secondly, China’s petroleum import and photovoltaic export quantity is large,but China can’t guide the direction of the price development to its advantage. The paper adapts to panel data and adjusted SMR model to probe the market power, and the conclusions is above:China’s petroleum imports is short of market power, instead of having big market power with exporters, which leads to China’s petroleum import can only be accepted the international price changes. This paper argues that China’s petroleum import has no market power, which is related to the seller with a high concentration, Chinese domestic petroleum substitutes and the new energy’s low development. China’s photovoltaic export through the "dual" and the production technology can reflect the lack of international market power.Next, with the high international oil price, China’s oil imports didn’t fall, instead of rising. The photovoltai’s price falls, but China’s export quantity can’t fall. Considering this phenomenon, the paper argues that China’s oil demand and photovoltaic supply is rigid,and uses empirical method to verify this. Based on cointegration test, using the VAR model to estimate oil import demand equation and photovoltaic supply equation, we can obtain price elasticity and income elasticity of demand, and compare with the two elasticity, we find China’s oil demand is rigid; the photovoltaic’s export elaticity is greater than supply price elasticity, so photovoltaic’s export is rigid.Finally, the following suggestions are given to deal with China’s large-country effect of energy products according to the above empirical analysis in this paper.In the oil trade, we proposed that China should decrease the rigid by technical methods and economical methods; In the photovoltaic trade,we proposed increase domestic demand, industry consolidation, emphasis on technology development, in order to solve China’s energy products trade dilemma.
Keywords/Search Tags:Energy Products, Large-country Effect, Market Power, SMR Model, rigidity
PDF Full Text Request
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