Research Of Large Country Effect Of Chinese Sugar Import Trade

In recent years,Chinese sugar importation presents a sharply increasing situation which accounted for a larger scale in world sugar importation than few years ago.To 2016,China has became the first place in the world's trade that imported sugar,so there may be a Large country effect in Chinese sugar importation.In order to confirm it,we used VAR empirical method model to test this supposition.Based on the conclusion of supposition,this paper also discusses the sucrose industry security which is the main part of sugar industry.At first,this study constructed a stationarity VAR model.Then through the impulse response analys is and variance decomposition technology,the study found that the importation of chinese sugar trade does not exist big country effect in pressent,namely,the importation of chinese sugar trade in large-scale does not signif icantly affect the international market price of sugar.At the same time,based on the dynamic relationship between the trade amount of sugar imports and the sugar prices both in domestic and abroad,in the short term.It is also found that the price difference of sugar,between domestic and abroad,is the main reason for the large scale of sugar importation(or even surge)for China.In the long term,it is mainly to make up for the gap of domestic sugar production and demand.At the same time,the impact of sugar imports on domestic sugar prices is great.Whether in the short term,or in the long run,the import of sugar has a great impact on the price of domestic sugar,especially the current sugar importation exceeds the quota amount of imports,which will continue to suppress the formation of domestic sugar prices.It is not conducive to maintaining the domestic sugar prices to rise with the rise in production costs.And it will squeeze profit margins of the domestic sugar production.And in the case of price difference between domestic and abroad,the fact that sugar imports exceeds the quota of import will become the current situation in China for sugar trade.On the other hand,to some extent,the rise of sugar prices in international prices,will improve China's sugar trade condition.But in the long run it will inhibit the scale of China's sugar imports,thus reversing the current situation of surge in sugar imports.On the basis of those conclusions and based on an open perspective,this paper focuses on the sucrose industry security and sucrose industry protection.The study concluded that the traditional and mechanical methods should be abandoned while we evaluate the safety of the sucrose industry.The right way is setting up an open,dynamic and overall safety concept of the sucrose industry.Based on the long-term stability of domestic sugar supply guarantee,we should develop a reasonable amount of sugar importation and focus on improving the sucrose yield of the sucrose industry,improving the efficiency of sucrose industry and future capacity of production.Finally,the article puts forward relevant policy recommendations.In view of the big country effect of China's sugar import,this study points out that,not only should we understand the conditions of the big country effect of sugar import trade,but we also should have a full realization of the duality of the big country effect,and fully understand the rationality of using the international sugar market and domestic agricultural resources.In view of the safety of sucrose industry,this study puts forward the concrete measures to improve the capacity of sugar industry.In view of the policy management of sugar import,this study suggests that we should seize the initiative of sugar trade game,fight smuggling,ensure orderly import of sugar,to reduce the risk of China's sugar imports trade;and to ensure the long-term stable supply of domestic sugar.The study proposed to develop starch sugar and other alternatives of sucrose,as well as to invest overseas' sugar industry.