Bias And Strategy Research On The Risk Perception Of The Crisis Decision Makers

With the development of the economy and society，the crisis is becoming the newnormal in our social development. As a powerful weapon to deal with the new normal，crisis management is becoming increasingly important. Meanwhile， the biggestproblem in the modern crisis management is how to make a scientific and efficientdecision under the crisis situations. Generally，all the decisions are the outputs of thecombined effect of the decision makers’ own rational and irrational factors. But inmany cases，the judgments and decisions are irrational. Especially under the crisissituations，the decision makers are more likely to make irrational decisions than onesunder the conventional situations. This is mainly because the crisis situation makes thedecision makers get the cognitive bias which lead to scientific decision-making isdifficult to reach，thereby affecting the time to resolve the crisis. Therefore，based onthe cognitive psychology，the research on the cognitive biases under the crisis situationis significant for the optimizing the crisis decision making and making themanagement more scientific.Based on the relationship between the risk perception psychology and thebehaviors of the decision makers，on the premise of the bounded rational hypothesis，this paper does the research of the crisis decision with the breakthrough point of thecognitive deviation. Through the analysis and research on the special attribute of thecrisis decision making and its impact on the decision makers，the formation mechanismof the cognitive deviation and other aspects，the paper provides a reference for the cognitive strategies to further improve the risk perception of the crisis decision makers.Furthermore，it will re-examine the crisis decision-making through the perspective ofcognitive bias. In prospect， it will provide protections for the effective crisismanagement by improving the cognitive ability， the scientific and efficientdecision-making ability and the crisis response capabilities of the crisis decisionmakers.This paper includes four parts. Based on the introductions of the concepts andcharacteristics of the crisis，crisis decision-making and cognitive bias and other relatedones，the first part focuses on the analysis of the crisis’s influence to the decisionmakers and theirs risk perceptions. The second part mainly expounds the forms of thecognitive bias during the four stages of the crisis information collection，collation，evaluation，sharing. On this basis，the third part mainly analyzes the causes of thecognitive biases of the decision makers who are affected by the crisis. The last partdoes some researches on how to take effective measures and strategies to avoid thecognitive deviation，so as to improve the ability of risk perception of the crisis decisionmakers on and further improve the ability to make the scientific and efficient decisions.