Study On Safety Input Prediction And Optimization Of Logistics Enterprise Based On The OT-GM Model

ABSTRACT:The safety of production is always a universal attention topic, especially the amount of logistics industry is increasingly rise nowadays, so safety management cannot be ignored. With the quantity of Logistics enterprise increasing gradually in our country, safety situation in the industry is serious because of the lack of effective management, major accidents have occurred especially in some important section such as the storage, transportation and the others. Although safety input is increasing also, the situation is not very good, the lack of scientific and reasonable resources allocation lead to the low economic efficiency. At present, security investment theory research in our country is still in the stage of development, further safety input prediction research can provide theoretical basis for investment decision.Because of the complexity and long-term of safety work in the enterprise, the time nodes of safety investment, this article will establish a prediction models of grey differential to predict the enterprise total safety input in the next years after make fuzzy description of enterprise security expenditures. About the optimization of security investment, considering "contribution" is a significant index for measure of risk, the article will establish a contribution weight model for risk factors based on the accident analysis, expert questionnaire method in order to obtain the contribution weight and provide some guidance for the optimization allocation of safety investment.The study would firstly forecast enterprise total safety input through the fuzzy prediction model GM (1,1) based on the safety investment theory. And then get safety input key module according to the logistics industry and the contribution of risk factors, establish a linear programming model to assign security resources. The security investment forecast and optimize allocation of research will be completed by OT-GM model which is consists of two theories, Optimum Theory and Grey prediction Model. Finally, reasonable suggestions would be put forwarded in the last.