Research On Energy Rebound Effect Of Tianjin Based On DEA-malmuist Index And CGE Model

In recent years, the economics of Tianjin is developing rapidly, energy consumptioncontinues to increase, the contradiction between economic development and energy consu-mption growth problem ensued. The energy problem has become the focus of economicdevelopment in the common problem. Under the premise of rapid economic development,How to reduce energy consumption and save energy are urgent problems in economicdevelopment. Improving energy efficiency and reducing energy consumption is recognized asan important approach to alleviate energy shortage problem. For Tianjin, whether byimproving energy efficiency can actually reduce energy consumption, whether JevonsParadox really exists, as well as the influence of the energy efficiency needs further research.This thesis surrounds on two core issues, raising the energy efficiency and the energyefficiency to the energy rebound effect influence. According to the economic growth, capitalinvestment and energy consumption in the past in Tianjin, to measure the total factor ofenergy efficiency of Tianjin in the past, calculated the energy rebound effect of condition ofTianjin in the past based on the energy efficiency. Analysis total factor of energy efficiencyand the energy rebound effect in Tianjin in1996-2011based on the influence factors ofenergy efficiency and the energy rebound effect, analysis various factors that result in thechange of them, establish the CGE model for studying on the impaction between energyefficiency and energy consumption, the energy rebound effect under the condition of existingpolicy and technology and on a macro level and make guidance for policy. Concrete researchcontent is as follows:1. Making a systematical analysis of the total factor of energy efficiency, rebound effect andenergy rebound effect, carried on the induction and summarizes for the existing research theoryand research method, gavethe problems existing in the research of relevant commentsclear.2. The economic development of Tianjin in the past and the present situation of energyconsumption is analyzed, mainly including production situation of the economic developmentand the energy of the calendar year and overall energy consumption level, etc.3. Used DEA-Malmquist index method to calculate the total factor productivity and thetotal factor of energy efficiency of Tianjin based on the date of capital investment, labor force,energy consumption and GDP from1996to2011in Tianjin. And established the Tobit modeland used Eviews6.0to analysis the total factor the influence factors of energy efficiency fromtechnological progress, government decisions and the energy consumption structure, etc.Targeted put forward measures to improve energy efficiency.4. Calculated rebound effects and analysis various condition of rebound effects based onthe total factor of energy efficiency from1996to2011in Tianjin. Analysis the various factorsand influence degree for energy rebound effect. Established CGE model and used GAMS toanalysis the impaction between energy efficiency and energy consumption, the energyrebound effect under the condition of existing policy and technology and on a macro level.