The Asymmetric Spillovet Effects Of FDI And Factors Analysis

In2013, China’s GDP growth rate was7.7%, the economic growth began to slow down, labor costs began to rise, the competition of the industries began to intensify, and FDI in China rose5.25percent, reaching$117.586billion, the foreign growth is still strong.On the implementation of reform and opening up, We were very cautious of the introduction of foreign at first, then used the strategy "trading market for technology" to make foreign money pour into. Foreign direct investment brings money and technology, FDI has been playing an important role in our country’s national economic development. Because the mechanism of spillover effect of FDI is complex, it relates to many influence factors. Many domestic and foreign scholars have done a lot of research on the spillover effect of foreign direct investment. But the spillover effect of foreign direct investment lacks of a unified theoretical system, brings great difficulties for empirical research, and makes the conclusion of spillover effect controversial. China’s capital accumulation, the employment the industrial structure, production scale, and regional economic are changing, is there also spillover effect at the present stage in industries? Is it positive or negative? The lack of spillover effect theory guidance in the empirical study makes it seem too "free" in the selection of model, variables, and samples. But the model, variables and samples may lead to the empirical results wrong. Therefore, this paper selects the more reasonable panel CRE method and the industry data to research spillover effects on average.FDI is of great concern to enhance the technology and management level, our country is in the new stage of industrial structure adjustment and the costs rise, the attract ability of foreign investment may decrease with the cost increasing and GDP slowdown, the use of FDI changes from making up the "double gap" to promote the technological improvement. We should be more focused and efficient in the use of FDI.FDI gradually adapts to the market environment, in the application of comparative advantage to seize the market, fdi’s strategy will continue to change. Differences between its endowments of the industries, they will make the different adjustment in the face of market and foreign reaction, finally, how the difference will be in the games of the industries? Is there a better method can describe the difference? In this paper, the CRE method of panel quantile regression was selected to observe and study the intra industry spillover effects.Recently, researchers have begun to focus on the nonlinear effect of economic variables on the spillover effect, they think the spillover effect must have a certain conditions, and the relationship is not linear. There are many factors, the researchers will misuse some proxy variables, there are also some researchers will ignore some factors, such as industry growth factor. Therefore, in view of our industrial characteristics to select variables, we investigate the spillover effects of the nonlinear effects will make sense on the establishment of policy. Then the paper mainly includes three aspects as follows:First of all, With reference to the existing literature, this paper constructed mathematical model that is more consistent with the nature of the spillover effect, Introduced the new panel CRE method, Improved the traditional panel data model in the choice of fixed and random effect to minimize the impact of the model and method on the results, estimated the spillover effect of1999-2011years of34industries on the industry level more accurately, and compared the differences between traditional panel model. At present, FDI’s spillover effect is positive.Then, using correlated random effects quantile regression, controlling the individual heterogeneity effect through the auxiliary regression, and selecting multiple quantile study the difference of spillover effects among the intra industry. The further will give the interpretation of the difference and compare the results to the traditional penalized quantile regression. The flexible foreign investment strategies and the change demand of china market lead the industry in different quantile difference in using labor and capital elements. The learning capacity will different and so does the spillover effect. The relationship may not a simple linear and the CRE model can give more information reflecting the differences in quantiles than the traditional methods. The CRE method reflects the same spillover effect as the traditional PFE method in the top three percentiles on high, low and high, it also can better describe the declining trend on higher quantile.At last, the paper introduced the panel threshold model to test whether there are threshold characteristics of the ratio of internal and external per capital and the sales growth rate and the scale of foreign capital. The final result shows that the three factors are having threshold effect, but the threshold number is different. The ratio of internal and external per capital has three regimes, and the sales growth rate also has three regimes, while the scale of foreign capital has two regimes. We must focus not only on the role of foreign capital "quality" but also on the "quantity", the conclusion also shows there does exist improper in variable selection.