Research On Influence Factors And Forecasts Commodity Housing Price In Shenyang

In the face of the reform in2014, China’s economy changes steadily in the "speed,structure optimization, power conversion". The second half of2014, the commercial housingprice of the national70large and medium-sized cities appeared chain fell, this is mainlybecause of changes in real estate regulation idea-"De-administration, Pay attention to themarket", it makes consumers wait to buy with cash in hand, which maintains a wait-and-seeattitude. Depend on the geographical advantage, the advantage of long-term development, thecommercial housing price in each big city appears slightly warmer. Based on regulationautonomy in the market, how to ensure the Home Ownership and realize the great dream ofChina is the most important work of the government of each session. Through the variousperiods of China, the real estate industry is composed of the main sectors of the marketeconomy. The real estate price fluctuates according to their value, while the commercial houseprice is affected by many factors. We should study the influence of factors related tocommercial house price by analyzing more comprehensive understanding of fluctuations inthe real estate price. This article is about to investigate the impact of factors affecting of realestate, so consumers can have a rational understanding. Whether it stands in the developmentof the national economy, or meets the people’s material living standards of the position. It isimportant to understand the development and changes of the commercial housing price.This paper takes Shenyang as the concrete research background, through expounding thetheory and empirical analysis, comprehensive analysis of the factors influencing thecommercial housing price in Shenyang. According to correlation analysis, this paper achievesthe factors that affect the commercial housing sales price of Shenyang highly are: commodityresidential area completed, the disposable income of urban residents, per capita GDP, the totalpopulation of the ending year, GDP, etc., and analyses the reasons of influencing factors andthe commercial housing price association degree; since the national welfare housing systemwas abolished, the residential market commodity price system is not perfect, the commercialhousing price data is not comprehensive, Gray System theory in dealing with poor andirregular data has obvious advantages, by using GM (1,1) theory to analysis short-termfluctuations in future housing price forecast Shenyang is appropriate, through amendingresiduals of original model, this paper can better forecast the short-term fluctuations incommodity housing price trends.The structure of the paper consists of the following three areas:Firstly, this paper elaborates the theory basis and the formation mechanism of the priceof commercial housing through theoretical analysis, and selects a part of the main indicatorsof economic development as the influencing factors of commercial housing price combinedwith economic development index of Shenyang.Secondly, this paper analyzes the influence factors of the selected Shenyang commercial housing price by correlation analysis by introducing the Grey correlation analysis and Greyprediction model and compared the correlation degree of each influence factors. At the sametime, this paper forecasts residential price short-term through the Grey prediction modecombined with the recently price of commercial housing of Shenyang city and gets a more inline with the law of development model by modifying the model.Finally, this paper provides some reference suggestions for the future development ofShenyang city commercial residential market by combining with the correlation analysis andmodel prediction results and the city of Shenyang economic development.