The Research On The Probability Model Of Accounts Receivable Default

In the modern commodity economy, commodity trading between buyers andsellers are mostly based on credit. Because sell on credit can not only make the creditenterprise for more customers, expand product sales, expand the market and canreduce the inventory cost of the products of enterprises. For credit enterprise, sell oncredit has incomparable advantages over other sales methods. However, accountsreceivable which is generated by the credit represent the value of assets is uncertain.Therefore, the enterprise should strengthen the management of accounts receivablecredit risk. To quantitative the probability of default accounts receivable risk is anintegral part of the accounts receivable credit risk management.On the basis of the relevant theoretical research results at home and abroad,paper research on the Probability Model of Accounts Receivable Default, this thesis’spurpose is to establish accounts receivable default probability calculation model, andprovide theoretical guidance and reference for the enterprise to management the riskof accounts receivable.First of all, the paper define the concept of the probability of accountsreceivable default, and analysis the connotation and influence factors, put forwardthe essence of the probability of default accounts receivable is the possibility ofcredit customer not according to contract payment to return debt. The most importantand direct influence factor of accounts receivable default is customer credit.Secondly, the paper analyzes the systemic of the behavior of customers to repaythe loan, puts forward the point that we can compare the pay back to accounts to asystem. On the basis of the influence of factors, determine the credit customer creditawareness and credit ability are parts of the system, parts are composed of series.Based on the above analysis, paper design accounts receivable default probabilitymodel based on the theory of the system reliability.Through the analysis of the characteristics of the variables in the modelfuzziness, after a series of mathematical reasoning, the paper explores the calculation and the solution of the variable, using the membership function in fuzzy mathematicsmethod to solve the variables in the model.Finally, the paper shows that the accounts receivable default probability modelbased on the theory of system reliability, can improve the accuracy of the accountsreceivable credit risk quantitative, guarantee the science and effectiveness ofaccounts receivable credit risk management.