Last Time Buy Quantity Analysis And Forecast For Spare Parts Of Lenovo Tablet PC

Nowadays, tablet PC industry is highly competitive. In order to gain more market share and increase economic profits, companies constantly have been developing new products to maintain technological leadership. Updating products frequently brings that generations of products coexist, which directly or indirectly increases the difficulties of enterprises provide after-sales service. As all generations of products differ among each other, their spare parts can’t be in common use. Another, speeding up update could accelerate the speed of old products out of the market and shorten old product life cycles when the updated products come into the market continually. So, companies must set reasonable level of inventory so as to ensure after-sale service for customers. Spare parts demand forecast is the key, especially the last time buy quantity forecast question. The last buy means that spare parts suppliers allow product manufactures to buy spare parts for the last time to meet all the demand in the maintenance warranty as the products and build-in components will be stopped producing because of technical renew and other reasons.According to the problem above, this paper mainly studies the last time buy quantity forecast for spare parts of Lenovo Tablet PC. Firstly, this paper summarizes the spare parts forecast method at home and abroad, analyzes and compares the advantages and disadvantages of various types of forecast methods in-depth, and determines installed base information forecast method as the more suitable forecast method for this paper. Secondly, this paper analyzes the internal and external factors which have an effect on spare parts demands and combines these factors with the mechanism of spare parts demands, knowing that three key factors, including product market holdings, the failure rate and customer behavior, have mainly effect on Lenovo Tablet PC spare parts demands. According to this, this paper establishes spare parts demand forecast model based on installed base information from product level and spare part level respectively. Finally, taking one type of Lenovo tablet PCs as an example, this paper applies the proposed forecast model and examines the forecast effects of the model.By analyzing the results of this paper, the last buy quantity forecast model put forward by this paper can more accurately forecast the demand of spare parts. Expect this forecast method could be a good reference for other similar products and other companies.