Characteristics Identification And Prediction Research Of Listed Mergers And Acquisitions Target Companies

Under the background of the global economic recovery and the process ofaccelerated integration, enterprises need to seek the new breakthrough to better develop.Mergers and acquisitions(M&A) as an important means to realize the diversificationand capital restructuring, has become an significant choice for enterprises to makestrategic development come true. The success of merger lies in choosing the appropriateinvestment target, recognition and its matching Target Corp, to achieve synergy ofmanagement and financing. Therefore, it has important theoretical and practicalsignificance to study the feature recognition of target enterprise in M&A.Firstly, this paper stands the angle of the acquirer choosing target enterprises, andelaborates the general motivation theory of M&A, providing a sufficient theoreticalbasis for the identification of M&A target enterprise’s characteristics. Secondly,considering of the impact of China’s institutional background and the environment ofcapital market on the acquisition target enterprise choice, and then this paper putsforward the relevant hypothesis of target enterprise in M&feature of our country. Onthe basis of this, to verify the correctness of the assumptions, this paper do the empiricalanalysis of recognition of the target enterprise’s characteristics and predictability of thetarget enterprise.This article selects157target samples and in accordance with the principle of M&a sample selection occurred in the2011-2013A stock market and157control samplesas the research object. First of all, according to the involved hypothesis, this paperbuilds a set of index system. Secondly, screen and identify the significant difference oftarget enterprise in M&A variables, through statistical testing method and factoranalysis method to classified. The study find that, the acquisition target enterprisemostly have a poor business performance, management ability is low, developmentaftereffect is insufficient, dispersed ownership structure, small scale, insufficient cashflow characteristics. Finally, the paper do the empirical analysis forecast of the mergerand acquisition target enterprise’s. The establishment of prediction model to predict thesample2011-2012years of using the Logistic regression method, the model passed thetest of goodness of fit, the accurate rate of back substitution test prediction reachesabove80%. In addition, the model is also applicable to the test sample. By substitutingthe sample group2013forecast model, determine the size of the acquisition probability, and in2013the enterprise whether practical situation of the M&A comparison, theprediction accuracy rate reaches more than70%.The result verify the predictability ofthe model once again. Thus the study makes a conclusion that the characteristics oftarget corporate M&A can be identified, and the target enterprise is also predictable.This study is helpful to the advancing and deepening of China’s M&A theorydevelopment, and also has an important meaning to explore the healthy and effectivepath of China enterprise to mergers and acquisitions.