The Effect Of Real Estate Policies Of China To Listed Real Estate Corporations In Shanghai And Shenzhen Stock Exchange

The real estate industry as a pillar industry of China has been rapid developed in recent years. It has played an important guiding and promoting role in China’s national economy. But it also brings a series of economic, social and livelihood issues. Therefore the government promulgated a number of macro-control policies. However, are these macro-control policies effective? How to measure the effect if they are effective? The study is rarely in empirical research. This paper uses data of listed real estate companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange to measure the effect of these macro-control policies with related statistical methods, providing some references to related research and some suggestions of macro-control policy.This paper selected five policies issued by government which target at real estate industry as an example including National rules 8,6,4,5 and new national rules 8. Relevant data of 83 listed real estate corporations of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange are taken as research samples, and CHOW test method and Event Study method are used to test the rate of stocks changes, the intensity of stocks changes and abnormal returns of stocks to measure the impact of these five policies to the real estate listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets to judge the effectiveness of macro-control policies.The empirical results show that (1) in general, the effectiveness of real estate policies is poor effect to the real estate industry. (2) There is a difference between the impact of these five policies, the effectiveness of National rules 8,6 and 4 is stronger than new National rules 8 and national rules 5. (3) To the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the effectiveness of these five policies is the strongest in first week after policies released and the effectiveness is waning in the following 2-6 weeks. But to Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the effectiveness of these five policies is ruleless.Finally, some suggestions are proposed. The government should to improve the effectiveness of real estate policies itself, reduce interest conflicts between local government and central government and develop investment channels like finance.