Effectiveness Evaluation Of Real Estate Transfer Restriction Policy

In 1998,China began to implement the housing commercialization reform.Since the18th CPC national congress,the central government has put forward control measures such as“streeting by the city”and“staying and not speculating”to control the excessive growth of housing prices.In 2016,with the opening of the national real estate destocking and monetization shed,the national housing prices began to heat up sharply.In 2017,a series of cities led by Beijing and Xiamen successively issued a policy of restrictive transfer.As a national central city and one of the important cities in central and western China,Chongqing's real estate market has been known for its steady development and stable housing prices.However,since the first half of 2017,house prices in Chongqing have risen rapidly.At the end of September,Chongqing introduced a housing restriction transfer policy to control the overheated development of the property market.This is also the first restrictive real estate policy in Chongqing.At the same time,as one of the four traditional first-tier cities in China,Guangzhou's real estate market operation has always been the vane of the national market.Guangzhou introduced the purchase restriction policy for the first time in 2010 and has not withdrawn from it.In March 2017,it again introduced the housing restriction transfer policy.Based on the comprehensive analysis of real estate regulation policies and housing prices in Chongqing and Guangzhou,this paper aims to study the effect of real estate restrictions on local housing prices,and explore the effect of the restrictions on transfer and purchase restrictions and the effect of a single policy.It provides a certain theoretical and practical basis for the adjustment of China's real estate policy and the construction of a long-term mechanism.This paper mainly carried out the following researches:First,it sorts out the influencing factors of housing price fluctuations,the related concepts of the restrictions on transfer policy and its relationship with housing price fluctuations,real estate market theory and real estate regulation policy evaluation theory.Furthermore,it sorts out the implementation status of the restricted transfer policy,and makes a preliminary evaluation of it,which lays a theoretical foundation for this research.Secondly,based on the research results of the existing real estate policy evaluations at home and abroad,the covariates affecting house price fluctuations were screened,and the Regerssion Discontinuity model of real estate sales restriction policy was constructed.Again,using the monthly data related to the real estate industry in Chongqing in 2016-2018,the regression analysis of housing prices in Chongqing and Guangzhou.Finally,the ordinary least squares and the Regerssion Discontinuity model are used to comprehensively compare the research results of housing prices in two cities to further analyze the effect of real estate transfer restrictions on housing prices.The conclusions of this paper are as follows:1)The Regerssion Discontinuity model has good applicability in the study of the effectiveness of real estate transfer restriction policy.This paper uses the Regerssion Discontinuity model to study the effectiveness of the Chongqing and Guangzhou restrictions on real-estate transfer.Only the comprehensive housing price model for new housing in Guangzhou has not passed the robustness test.2)The restriction of transfer policy has the opposite effect on the housing prices in Chongqing and Guangzhou.For the new residential market,the policy of restricting transfer has had a significant impact on the prices of new residential buildings in the two cities,but the effect is reversed.The policy of restricting transfer has a significant inhibitory effect on the price of new residential buildings in Chongqing,and the policy effect is obvious.Among them,the suppression of new residential housing prices below 90m~2 is the strongest,and the suppression of 90-144m~2 new residential housing prices is second.The restricted transfer policy has a positive effect on the housing prices of new residential buildings in Guangzhou.This paper combines the analysis of the Regerssion Discontinuity graphs and finds that the introduction of the Guangzhou transfer restriction policy has led to a slight jump in the price of new housing,but to a large extent,the local house prices increase have been suppressed.It shows that the introduction of the Guangzhou restriction policy has certain necessity.For the second-hand housing market,the introduction of the two-story restriction policy has not produced significant results on the local second-hand housing market.From the perspective of the policy coefficient symbol,the restricted transfer policy has a certain inhibitory effect on the price of second-hand housing in Chongqing,while the price of second-hand housing in Guangzhou shows a slight increase.3)The regression results of Guangzhou's housing prices show that the effect of the Guangzhou transfer restriction and purchase restriction policy is not as effective as the separate transfer policy.Based on the regression results of housing prices in Chongqing and Guangzhou and the current situation of the real estate market,this paper puts forward the following suggestions:refine and improve the current real estate regulation and control policies,improve the scientific nature of regulation and control policies,and accelerate the construction of long-term real estate mechanism.Accelerate financial system reform from the outside,broaden the investment channels of residents,and guide residents to rational investment.