The Study On The Financial Crisis Warning Of The Quoted Companies Living On Intelligence And Information Technology

The potential investment market attracted more and more attention because of the increasing number of quoted companies in China. An allure of high returns which is em-phasized partially and the ignorance of the investment quality could lead to failure in making decisions, management failure and poor performance, which would result in deterioration of the financial situation which would lead to be treated specially and even delisting risk, and the intelligence and information industry cannot be escaped completely.The intelligence and information industry in China started later but has a rapid development and has become the backbone to promote development of our national economy,once falling in the financial crisis, not only is the sustainable growth of it affected but also are the development of China at a disadvantage.So the establishment of early-warning system of financial crisis is needed badly for the accurate financial crisis of quoted companies of intelligence and information,t he improvement of financial crisis control,warning ability,timely and accurate countermeasure and adjusted measure to be done and the reduction of the loss.The estimated samples selected coming from 17 companies treated especially last 3 years whose financial were healthy and 17 companies in crisis respectively, and all the 34 companies from intelligence and information industry which are ranging from 2010 to 2013 are selected according to the ratio of 1:1 is based on the summary of the research achievements of domestic and international financial crisis warning, moreover, the object is the data coming from the financial reports of quoted companies,and the companies are whether considered as crisis definition standard due to abnormal finance by ST.18 indexes of financial warning included profitability, solvency, operating capacity, development capacity and cash flow ability and so on are identified initially through the construction of index system by adopting the cash flow index based on "four ability " financial index system.Four critical components including 10 warning indexes are determined finally through descriptive analysis,KMO test and principal component analysis of the duplicate with the help of SPSS 17.0 statistical software. The two-x Logistic regression analysis is used to create a predictive model for the four principle components and the accuracy of comprehensive prediction reached 73.5%.The results studied shows that:firstly, the effective information,which can provide reference for the financial activity,of the emerge of financial crisis of quoted companies of intelligence and information can be reflected precisely by the 10 financial warning indexes determined; secondly, the present study found that the index of debt paying ability and index of development ability have important influence on the quoted companies of intelligence and information which whether fall into financial crisis, finally,whether the quoted companies of intelligence and information have financial crisis can be predicted by the model builded by financial indexes; Therefore, whether it is the owners, operators and investors should pay more attention to the financial risk, in order to avoid the loss caused by debt crisis,rational judgments and scientific decision should made for debt financing and investment activities should.