Research On The Simulation Of Logistics Risk Transmission In Manufacturing Supply Chain

Manufacturing industry supply chain system is a dynamic interaction of the nonlinear system. The system consists of three subsystems, which are supplier system, manufacturer system and distributor system. They are related to each other. In manufacturing industry supply chain system, one of logistics factors change may cause the logistics risk. Logistics risk does not exist in independent enterprise, but constantly move following purchasing, production and sales. In this process, logistics risk will harm to enterprise development through various forms to accumulate, amplification, or mutations, even affect the entire manufacturing industry supply chain network through each one enterprise indirectly and eventually lead to supply chain enterprise collapse. Because of the close business relations, logistics risk is becoming increasingly adept at spreading. So the analysis on manufacturing industry supply chain logistics risk transmission is more and more important. Only by mastering these characteristics and rules can control and avoid the risk, raise the manufacturing industry supply chain logistics risk management.Through analyzing the mechanism of logistics risk, this paper studies the impact of logistics risk on manufacturing industry supply chain system. Fist, according to micro level, this thesis structures a system by means of system dynamical analysis, analyze process of the material flow, and simulates the change rules of logistics risk in four kinds of conditions. The simulation results show that the logistics risk transfer along supply chain which start from the suppliers, through the manufacturing enterprises, and eventually eventually to the sales enterprise; Secondly, according to macro level, based on the complex network theory, this thesis structures a large and complex system by using Matlab software, analyzes the supply chain network’s statistical properties in two different situations. The simulation results that the high logistics risk enterprise and the core enterprise are much easier to be attacked, logistics risk transmission changes the structure of whole supply chain; Finally, the control measures of logistics risk transmission are put forward from micro level and macro level.