Research On Default Risk Assessment Of The Supply Chain Finance In Chinese Commercial Banks

Supply Chain Finance is such a business model in which commercial banks treatthe credit of core business as intermediaries. In this kind of business, according topredominate real trade information between enterprises and SMEs, these commercialbanks lend fund to SMEs to achieve win-win goal. Learning from foreign experience,this business has greater room to develop. However, because of many negative factorsin domestic commercial banks, there is big potential credit risk in banks. So it is verynecessary for us to study on the default risk assessment of supply chain financial,combined with supply chain finance business models, basing on the theory of supplychain finance.Starting from the theory of supply chain finance and default risk assessment, thispaper focuses on the default risk assessment of SMEs financing. According tointroducing the supply chain finance and summarizing and discussing the applicabilityof foreign advanced assessment methods, combined with the domestic supply chainfinance default risk development status and the analysis of three main financing models,this essay constructs a default risk assessment model and finally gives a lot of effectivesuggestions.In the beginning, this paper introduces the theory of supply chain finance andanalyzes the causes of the financial risks of default from the SMEs themselves, theexternal macro-environment and moral hazard, and then introduces some methods fromthe traditional stage, statistical analysis stage, the stage of artificial intelligence andmodern econometric model, laying a solid theoretical foundation for the full text. Thenthe essay introduces the current developing situation of supply chain finance briefly andexpounds the connotations and circuits of three different financing models in China.According to analyzing the risk sources of three financing models, mainly in the creditdefault risk assessment of the core businesses and financing businesses, lack of relevantdata, the effectiveness of collateral etc. Following this paper introduces survivalanalysis theory and COX survival proportional hazards model, and then sets up indexsystem of the SMEs supply chain finance default risk, combined with dealing with datausing principal component analysis, and builds supply chain finance default riskassessment model by COX regression.Finally, according to the earlier findings of the repression, combined with the research results of other scholars about the supply chain, this essay gives manysuggestions from participators, assessment itself and the related work three aspects. Inthe participators, commercial banks may change current situation by choosing the corebusinesses carefully, establishing a strict access system for SMEs and strengthen theregulations of the third party logistics enterprises. In supply chain finance assessmentitself, the commercial banks can strengthen indicators screening of assessment ofdefault risk, explore supply chain finance evaluation model continuously, focus on theusing of quantitative and qualitative analysis, make evaluation systems localization andindustry-based come true. In related work, the government should promote relevantlegal system construction, accelerate the construction of the database, improve theinformation disclosure system of SMEs etc. so that commercial banks have an moreuseful external environment.