| Since the2008financial crisis, the country’s financial security and stability is gaining increasing attention. Culprit of this crisis---shadow banking system, because of its enormous destructive result caused, is heavily blamed by many people.In domestic area, in recent years as an important financial innovation deepened product, although it wasn’t long before it appeared, the rapid development has made which become an important part of the financial system. It also caused mixed widely discussion among the regulators and academia towards its existence.What I found the relevant literature:on the definition of the scope of domestic shadow banks, relatively few studies and opinions are not uniform; from the perspective of the shadow banking to start research little correlation between the literature, and substantially in the theoretical analysis phase. In this case, after this paper, both commercial banks and the shadow banking system stability were estimated to further explore the relationship between the two models by the way, no doubt has great practical significance.The first is the empirical analysis is calculated on the size of the shadow banking, the paper into the shadow banking:unobserved credit, commercial bank balance sheet financial products, trust products measure three components separately.Estimation of the commercial banking system stability, the author reference a lot of research and international standard at home and abroad, combined with the particularity of China’s financial development, and ultimately determine the stability of China’s commercial banks is estimated that the index system and mapping method has been used indicators of the bank’s risk status over the years, the results obtained are consistent with the international situation.This paper argues that, on the one hand the emergence of the shadow banking largely made up for the shortcomings of traditional financial system, promoted the traditional financial institutions, particularly banks’ financial reform;while on the other hand, it had its own extremely limitations and was in lack of regulations like traditional financial institutions did. Once the crisis happened,it would have disastrous consequences for the country’s financial security and stability. In short, the development of the shadow banking has a double-edged sword for the impact of the effect.As China’s financial system’s most important part---commercial banks, the stability of its own level will be a good representative of the level of development of China’s financial stability. Therefore, this paper selects the stability of the banking system as a representative of the level of financial stability of the country, to investigate the effect of the shadow banking system development on China’s financial stability through its impact on the stability of the level of development of China’s commercial banking system.The empirical results show that the impact of the development of the shadow banking system on the stability of commercial banks has an inverted U-shaped threshold effect:while below the threshold, the growing shadow banking is conducive to improve stability of commercial banking system; while but when it exceeds the threshold, it has played opposite effect on the stability of China’s commercial banking system,which proved the theoretical results of this study. |
