Research On The Impact Led By The Shadow Banking To The Stability Of The Commercial Banking System In China

In terms of the scope of global development,the problems of shadow banking system have been of the focus worldwide attention.With the development of the financial innovation,the shadow banking system has a much wider variety of forms and appears more frequently in our life.Especially in recent years,the shadow banking system has permeated into the commercial banking system,and they have been the important part of the off-balance-sheet activities,like financial products,undiscounted acceptances,entrusted loans,and so on.In the other hand,the cooperation continue to deepen and expand between the tradition commercial banking system and the nonbanking financial institutions,like the securities company,the fond company and the trust company.Besides,the forms of private financing have been expanded,various financing platforms have sprung up all over China with great speed.The power which can compete with the traditional commercial banking system,has concerned all the society because of the lack of corresponding supervision mechanism and legal norms.Every coin has two sides.The paper analyses problems of the shadow banking system with Chinese particular characteristic objectively,expounds the way how the shadow banking system has an influence on the traditional commercial banking system from all sides,and verifies the effect using the empirical model.Firstly,on the basis of domestic and foreign research,the paper combines the forms and trend of financial innovation,defines and classifies the shadow banking on the background and analyses its state of development in China.Then,the scale can be calculated approximately.Secondly,there is short of the standard about the stability of the traditional commercial banking system,so the paper selects some indexes that have an important influence on the stability and evaluates its reliability according to the selected category,the macro economy,the finance situation and the operation of commercial banking.Thirdly,theoretic analysis can be conducted,discussing the positive and negative effects.Besides,basing the scale of the shadow banking and the standard of the traditional commercial banking system,the paper selects some related explanatory variables and establishes the nonlinear regression model using the nonlinear least-squares fitting technique to conduct the empirical test.And it says that the development of the shadow banking has a positive effect on the stability of the banking system for now.Finally,the article draws a conclusion and provides some suggestions in three contexts.First,encourage its development moderately and paly its positive role comprehensively.Second,perfect regulation system and optimize the internal control mechanism.Third,promote the financial reform and guide the shadow banking to get the benign development.