The Research On Influences Of House Price Fluctuation On The Urban Residents Consumption

To accomplish the transformation of the mode of economic growth in China from external dependence to domestic demand led, in which the key is to ensure sustained growth in consumer demand. But the fact is that consumption rate down to 35% of output in 2012, from 47% a decade ago. Worse, this trend has not yet changed. On the other hand, the property prices continue to rise. Here’s the catch: will house price fluctuation affect the residents’ consumption? This is the focus of this paper.In this paper, according to the logic of posing problems- analyzing problemssolving problems, the first part introduces the research background, research status and the main research contents. Based on the existing research results, this paper runs through the theories of house price fluctuation affecting the residents’ consumption. And then analyzes the movements in the housing market and the changes of urban residents’ consumption in two decades from two dimensions, horizontal and longitudinal. Finally, based on provincial Panel-data from 1990 to 2012, investigated the effects of house price fluctuation on the consumption of urban residents, and proposed some relative strategic suggestions.In this positive analysis, the author examined not only the direct impact of house price fluctuation on urban residents’ consumption, but also added new elements, interaction between housing price and credit level, and between housing price and government expenditure on livelihood improvement, In order to examining how house price fluctuation influence the effect that credit level and government’ livelihood expenditure on urban residents’ consumption. The results suggest that a surge in house price held back urban residents’ consumption growth. Meanwhile, home price increasing also weakens the effect that credit and government expenditure on urban residents’ consumption. To ensure the reliability of the results, the author makes regression analysis twice again, once the data samples of 4 municipalities are excluded, in the other regression, sequence of data samples on urban residents’ consumption, which are below the 10 th percentile or above 90 th percentile, are excluded.According to the empirical results, the author proposes some policy suggestions from the three aspects: stabilizing housing prices, establishing and improving the elderly support system, increasing people’s incomes.