Study On The Influence Of Urban Growth Management Stratey Oriented By Development Priority Zoning

In order to deal with the space disorderly development, extensive land use and the mismatch of population and economic activities, China has introduced the development priority zoning plans. As space plans, only when development priority zoning plans embody in land can they be truly implemented. Given the current process of urbanization, urban growth management is the key to the implementation of these plans. Study on the influence of development priority zoning on urban growth management strategy can contribute to the successful implementation of development priority zoning plans and promote the orderly development of space.On the basis of literature review, this paper finds out the relationship between urban growth management and development priority zoning plans, which is the theoretical basis of the study. According to the situation of land use and socio-economic development in China, this paper builds a conceptual model of urban growth system based on development priority zoning. In line with system dynamics, this model is divided into land subsystem, population subsystem, economic subsystem and development priority zoning subsystem. After a systematic analysis, the purpose and the boundary of the system model are defined. Then Vensim PLE is used to depict the feedbacks among the various subsystems and to establish relation equations of variables, which compose the urban growth system dynamics model. The model is validated through a feasibility analysis of its subsystems, sensitivity analysis and history consistency analysis. Yiwu and Qingtian are selected as cases. Scenario simulations are carried out when these cases adopt the time-driven and event-driven mode. The simulation results show that the mode of urban growth will affect the economic development, migration and land use types of a region. From the perspective of development priority zoning, the time-driven mode is more suitable for the protection area and the event-driven mode is more applicable for the development area. At last, this paper proposes some suggestions on urban growth management policy based on development priority zoning, which refer to flexibility and function of urban growth boundary, land survey system and information flow mechanisms, internalization of the externalities of development priority zoning. These suggestions are proposed to provide a basis for the implementation of development priority zoning plans.