Decision Model Of Subsidies And Price For Tianjin Urban Public Transportation

Urban public transportation, the important part of urban systems, guarantees the normal operation of different departments. The growing population of Tianjin, economic development and acceleration of urbanization, at the same time, the people's travel demands increase significantly. Although, bus priority policy is introduced to encourage the development of Tianjin urban public transportation and appropriate subsidies are allcoated to public transportation enterprises, the passenger share of urban public transportation is very low.This paper introduced management of urban public transportation, bus priority policy and research achievements at home and abroad in recent years. On the basis of theses, combining with the actual situation of Tianjin urban public transportation, the fares and subsidies amount were adjusted to attract residents to use public transportation as the travel tools, maximumize passenger share of urban public transportation and achieve the goal of bus priority. SD model of subsidies and price for Tianjin urban public transportation was built with the help of the Vensim software and it has been simulated. The model was debugged between 1994 and 2008. The model was valatiated by means of dimensional consistency test, run test and sensitivity analysis. With the help of scenario analysis method, two scenarios and eighteen sets of fares and subsidy programs were designed on the premise that passenger share of Tianjin urban public transportation were 37% in 2020. By comparing the results of analysis of several options, the urban public transportation was most attractive to passengers, realize the bus priority goal and the public transportation enterprises can obtain the highest income when the fare was 1 yuan, the subsidery amount rising to 1.5% and the operating vehicles all substituted by air-conditioned ones.This paper provides a new approach and point of view for the relevant government departments and public transport enterprises to make bus priority policy and promote sustainable development of Tianjin urban public transportation.