Study On System Dynamics Simulation Of Urban Land Intensive Use

Urban land intensive use is the fundamental strategy of ecological civilization construction and the strategic choice of new urbanization,The state attaches great importance to the urban land intensive use,under this background,how to correctly understand the urban land intensive use,set reasonable target of urban land intensive use,analyze and evaluate the expected results of relevant policies are the problems to be solved.This paper defines the urban land intensive use from three aspects:relativity,dynamic and comprehensive.Urban land intensive use is an integrated dynamic system.The urban land use intensification is defined as a Pareto improvement.On this basis,based on the development model of Nanjing in 2005?2015,the system dynamics model of urban land intensive use is constructed,this system model is used to simulate the behavior of urban land intensive use in Nanjing during 2016-2025,the future trend of urban land intensive use in Nanjing was estimated under different scenarios,based on this,the optimization of urban land intensive use in Nanjing in 2020 and in 2025 was optimized.Finally,on the basis of combing the urban land intensive use policy,three main policy measures are designed,and the policy measures are analyzed and evaluated through the simulation results of the system model.The conclusions are as follows:(1)Urban land intensive use system is composed of urban economic subsystem,urban social subsystem and urban environment subsystem,and the subsystems are interrelated and correlated,the core of each subsystem interaction is the input and output of production factors.The system dynamics model is constructed on the basis of defining the logical causal relationship and the quantitative relation between the structural elements of the system could be used to simulate the behavior of urban land intensive use in Nanjing.(2)2005?2015,Nanjing urban land intensive use development trend is good.The future development trend of urban land intensive use can be predicted through scenario simulation,based on the above,the paper has designed a number of objectives of the comprehensive urban land intensive use of Nanjing in 2020 and 2025(See Tab.5-3 for details).(3)The level of economic development is improving through economic development policy,at the same time,promotes the urban land use to the high level intensive mode of"low input,high output".Land use standards on the one hand can really enhance the level of urban land intensive use,on the other hand,the urban land use is difficult to get rid of the original model,still maintain the urban land intensive use mode of "high input,high output".The scale control policy on the one hand gradually begin enhancing the level of urban land intensive use,on the other hand,it makes the urban land use gradually change to the high level urban land intensive use mode of "low input,high output".The dynamic model of urban land intensive use system is an iterative process,which needs to be explored and perfected in the future learning process.