The Impact Of International Oil Price Shocks On Major Economies’ Macro-economy

Because of the geopolitical situation, unexpected things, international capital flow, the comprehensive situation of supply and demand and other factors, international oil prices change frequently. Due to the constantly development of social economy, the increase of people’s living quality and global demand for oil resources, especially in developing countries, oil consumption demand is rising rapidly. International oil price’s fluctuations have an impact on country’s economy that price system and economic operation. In recent years, the international oil price fluctuations and its impact have has caused serious concern around the world. Now the development of China’s economy, the increase of demand for oil resources and the degree of import dependency are constantly improving. But the oil supply and its increment in China are much lower than the oil demand and its increment, the contradiction between our domestic oil supply and demand is gradually aggravated. Along with China’s oil price mechanism reform and the increasing degree of import dependency, international oil price shocks have more and more influence on China’s economy. Therefore, this paper analyzes the impact of oil price shocks for the domestic economy, and provides relevant countermeasures and suggestions for China’s steady economic growth.This paper mainly analyzes that the international oil price shocks have an impact on major economies based on the global vector autoregressive model. United States, Japan, Euro and China are research objects of this paper. It includes some parts:the first is the introduction that points out the research background, the literature at home and abroad, the purpose of research, main frame structure; the second part summarizes that the international oil price formation mechanism, its variation characteristics and some influence factors, and main effects of international oil price fluctuation to economy; the third part expounds the empirical analysis model——the global vector autoregressive model and its mechanism; the fourth part is by constructing the empirical analysis model to examine the international oil price shocks to the United States, Euro, Japan and China’s macro-economy that reflects the macroeconomic operation of five representative indicators (real GDP, CPI, the real exchange rate, nominal long-term interest and short-term interest rates), and analyzes the test results; the last part is to conclude and point out some recommendations based on the results of first four parts and qualitative and quantitative research. Major results are as follows:international oil price shocks has an significant influence on four economies’ macro-economy,and because of they have differences in oil-rich degree, financial openness and foreign oil dependence, so the main economic variables in the face of international oil price shock exist different response.In view of the empirical analysis result and the United States and other developed economies’ construction experience on petroleum strategic reserves, financial system and so on, and combined with China’s economic development, oil supply and demand situation, China should reduce oil external dependency, increase the utilization rate of energy, develop alternative energy and other way to ease the influence of international oil price shocks bring to macro-economy and to promote the steady development of China’s economy.