H Company MES Project Risk Assessment Based On Bayesian Network

With the rapid development of information technology,data acquisition technology and automation technology has been rapid development,the workshop production process monitoring and intelligent decision.In recent years industry intelligent and manufacturing 4.0 is hot topic,pointed out the direction for manufacturing technology development.MES(manufacturing execution system)is the vehicle of workshop information management technology,its production process in the implementation of digital,transparency,visualization and intelligence plays a core role.MES system have been implemented by many enterprises,but due to some of the specialty of MES system,has caused a serious difference between the actual implementation cycle,implementation cost,implementation performance with expected in many projects.Base on MES system was implemented in H company,MES project risk factors of project planning stage and implementation stage were found out by research of the history project and discussion with experts.and then the value of risk probability and harmful effect were estimated through the questionnaire survey by related experts and the key user.And through the level of risk matrix to reconstruct risk valuation risk factors in R1,R2,R3 levels of value.MES risk nodes of Bayesian network model is established by Bayesian network analysis software GeNIe.And then parameters study was executed by above risk level of evaluation.Finally through the Bayesian reverse reasoning,sensitivity analysis,identify key risk factors for a project.So as to improve the risk prediction ability of risk managers,to take effective measures to reduce risk or risk aversion.