Study On The Risk Decision Method Considering The Behavior Of The Incomplete Information

In the social and economic life, because of the limitation of decision-makers’ awareness of the problem or capacity of information processing, or some objective reasons and so on, the information that decision makers provide are often incomplete. For this kind of problem, the traditional risk decision-making methods have some limitation. Therefore, the study for the decision-making theory and methods of considering the risk of incomplete information behavior decision has important theoretical and realistic significance.In this paper, the consideration behavior of the incomplete information of risk decision-making problem will be discussed and researched. A series of research works are conducted as follows.First, the problem of risk decision considering of the behavior of the incomplete information is described and the theoretical framework for the research problem is proposed. Considering the real decision making problems, there are two kinds of incomplete information. One is the incomplete information of natural state for the future, which is provided by experts to estimate the probability. The other is the incomplete information of the expectations indicators that decision makers give. Respectively corresponding problem description is given.Second, the risk decision method considering the behavior of incomplete information is proposed. To the incomplete information of a state of nature for the future, which is presented by experts to estimate the probability, this paper presents a probability estimation model based on D-S evidence theory, which regard the experts’ advice as evidence and the expert advice is given for effective buildup method, the comprehensive result will be considered to be the probability of this rally. For the problem that decision-makers give the incomplete information, this paper offers a decision-making method based on prospect theory. In this method, first incomplete information of the expected information is divided into two kinds, one kind is that reference point is complete and the other is that reference point is not complete. The paper based on prospect theory and utility theory to obtain value. Then the paper will be through skillful design to get weight value, and based on multi-attribute utility theory to get comprehensive prospect value of each scheme. At last, based on the possible degree of sorting methods, the sorting of schemes will be solved.Third, the paper applies the method to FT company to the new product development scheme selection considering the incomplete information of decision making. This paper gives a reality example and applying the proposed method to solve it. Then it fully demonstrates the effect of psychological behavior of the decision makers to decision-making.The related research in the paper offers a theoretical guidance framework and methodical and technical framework to the study of the risk decision method considering of the behavior of incomplete information.