Order Management Research Based On Uncertain Demand

Company is a world famous sports goods company. As the long lead time, seasonality and high demand, the company will give the purchase order to the manufacturer 6-8 month ahead. But due to the long time, there will be a demand uncertainty which will cause a big cancellation on the order.The research is based on the actual business of company N with analysis on the historical data and statistics model setting up. Regression, neutral net and grey model are researched in the paper, and also seasonality is considered. A forecast model is set up to predict the cancellation of the order. This can help the management team to do the decision before it happens. A detail report with more information will be provided for further analysis.Also we provide a comparison on two popular supply chain model, and suggestion to company N to solve the problems caused by demand uncertainty. Including supplier management and new supply system design.