| Company is a world famous sports goods company. As the long lead time, seasonality and high demand, the company will give the purchase order to the manufacturer 6-8 month ahead. But due to the long time, there will be a demand uncertainty which will cause a big cancellation on the order.The research is based on the actual business of company N with analysis on the historical data and statistics model setting up. Regression, neutral net and grey model are researched in the paper, and also seasonality is considered. A forecast model is set up to predict the cancellation of the order. This can help the management team to do the decision before it happens. A detail report with more information will be provided for further analysis.Also we provide a comparison on two popular supply chain model, and suggestion to company N. Which can help to solve the problems caused by demand uncertainty. Including supplier management and new supply system design. |
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