China’s Xinjiang And The Five Central Asian Countries Foreign Trade Relations、The Factors Affecting And Economic Effect Analysis

The paper in the descriptive analysis and empirical analysis framework of Xinjiang import and export trade current situation and trade structure, influencing factors, Xinjiang trade with five central Asican countries on both sides of the trade potential and economy effect is analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows:1, Xinjiang during the sample in the total volume of import and export trade is the increasing year by year, export trade, import and export trade flow flow accounted for a larger proportion, has been in the trade surplus, foreign trade dependence in recent years has been continuously strengthened, but the Xinjiang foreign trade structure is relatively single.Affected by various factors, in recent years, Xinjiang and the five Central Asian countries of the trade between the growth rate is not fast2, The trade competition and complementary, China(Xinjiang) has the trade competition and the five Central Asian countries in the international market of goods less, in the foreign trade commodity structure of a single, mostly concentrated in labor-intensive products, capital intensive products in the trade of these countries, does not have the big advantage. Especially the Central Asian countries has the advantages of the products are concentrated in labor-intensive products. But Chinese and the five Central Asian countries trade relations,complementary the type of merchandise is also less,and complementary products are mostly concentrated in labor-intensive products.3, In the analysis of influence factors, find the bilateral GDP, distance, percapital GDP, whether the border is a key factor to affect the import and export trade flow, the bilateral economic development level and the distance between the biggest factors of affecting sample. Second is the impact of regional economic cooperation organizations of sco and wto on the bilateral import and export trade, international direct investment has no significant effect on Xinjiang and the five Central Asian countries import and export trade.4, In the trade potential analysis in Xinjiang and the five Central Asian countries, through the calculation of actual total volume of import and export trade and the ratio of the total volume of import and export trade theory found: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan in the sample period, the actual import and export trade volume and the theory of import and export trade volume ratio has been between 0.8-1.2, import and export trade potential belongs to the”potential the pioneering”, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan respectively in the import and export trade potential in 1999, 1998 as the “potential giant”, during the sample period of the remaining year import & export trade potential are ”potential development type”.5, In the analysis of the economic effects, economic effects brought about by the creation effect and trade diversion effect on trade are analyzed, found that the trade creation effect has a positive incentive effect is very strong on economic effect, join in regional economic cooperation organization will promote the development of bilateral economy to a large extent, create greater economic benefits, while the promoting effect of trade transfer effection the economic development between Xinjiang and the five Central Asian countries is not very strong.Accordingly, from speeding up the import and export product structure adjustment, formulate corresponding preferential policies, make grate efforts to expand the positive incentive regional economic cooperation in the economy, dig the potential of the trade between Xinjiang and the five Central Asian countries, hold Yuanjiang opportunity, speed up the Construction of the core area of the Silk Road Economic etc..