A Empirical Study Of Capital Flow Reversal Shock Effect To Emerging Economies Under The Background Of Quantitative Easing Exit

At the beginning of the subprime crisis, a lot of capital flows to emerging economies to avoid developed economies weak economic and financial situation, and drive emerging economies asset prices, expand the scale of the credit, also have a certain positive role to economic growth in emerging economies. However, since the fed fresh cut bond buying size, after blowing from quantitative easing horns, capital flows reverse back in the world. As a global monetary policy, the fed from quantitative easing measures capital flows to emerging economies to reverse almost immediately, the influence of emerging economies are in stocks, bonds, such as the economic situation is so big. Inspects the quantitative easing out under the background of capital flow reversal effect impact on emerging economies, and study the capital flow reversals affects the pathway of emerging economies, emerging economies are faced with in the future with periodic reversal of capital flows, the financial crisis to provide policy guidance has very important practical significance.This paper studied the quantitative easing out under the background of the emerging economies capital flows reverse the current situation, reasons and pathways; Second, respectively, based on extended Tobin-Rakshit and Blinder-Blanchard extension framework, theory analysis was carried out on the impact effect; Then, the empirical analysis of capital flow reversal to emerging economies capital markets, economic growth and the impact of the price level effect. The empirical results show that the capital market, the quantitative easing(qe) before and after the exit, the U.S. stock market for emerging economies in the stock market volatility has a certain degree of spillover effects, the vertical point of view, in May 2013, when the fresh air in the stock market volatility of more than 2014 years after officially retired from the volatility of the stock market, this is mainly due to the federal reserve and the emerging economies were washed away in May of 2013 teaching, guarantee the exiting will be a gradual process, the market exit of qe also have mental preparation. Horizontal point of view, the same time the stock market by the volatility of emerging economies is not the same, this is the emerging economies of financial market openness and the political environment, etc. In terms of economic growth and the price level, foreign direct investment on economic growth and the impact of the price level effect, must be predicted within the time limit, the impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth will be more and more small, the impact on inflation increases relatively, foreign debt and the impact of inflation on economic growth is increased at first, then gradually declined.Finally, combing with the results of the study and the current international economic situation, this paper results the impact of the reversal effect of capital flows to emerging economies varies across countries, emerging economies should take precautions by international policy coordination to abate the negative impact caused by the reversal of capital flows.