Empirical Analysis Of Factors Influencing Capital Flight In Emerging Economies

The economic globalization and trade liberalization since the last century in 80 s continues to advance,various countries especially in emerging market countries continue to relax control over capital management,we need to acknowledge that the capital can flow freely in the world,the rapid expansion of international capital driven by investment and consumption in a certain sense,fueled the effect on economic growth.However,its negative effects can not be underestimated.Compared with developed economies,there are some defects in emerging economies,the domestic system,and financial system because of lagging behind the development of slow and fragile,which makes it is difficult to take a huge risk of sudden,once the capital quickly from their withdrawal,large-scale capital flight,then this The destructive force of emerging markets is immeasurable,if the measures taken are improper,extremely easy to cause disastrous consequences such as the Asian financial crisis in 1997.In recent years,especially after the U.S.QE exit,capital flight problem caused the attention of scholars at home and abroad.What is the impact of capital flight,how to guard against and control of capital flight seems to be the main concern and research direction of the current scholars.Therefore,it is necessary for us to find a reasonable calculation method for accurate estimates of capital flight on emerging economies as a whole and its determinants are further discussed.In this paper,62 emerging economies in 1981-2015 were selected as the sample to measure the scale of capital flight,and then the panel data fixed effect model was established based on the amount of capital flight.The study found that the currency rate,public debt,domestic interest rates,the political wind These risk factors to the capital flight in emerging economies was significant.Considering the capital flight has a certain inertia,as far as possible to improve the reliability of the results of the empirical results,to further the implementation of verification,this paper introduces the dynamic model,the dynamic panel model selection we used two step system GMM method for regression analysis of the two the results are consistent.And according to the results for emerging economies to put forward some policy proposals to prevent capital flight scale,promote stable economic growth.