Study On The Quantitative Model And Risk Factors For Coalbed Methane Development

Coalbed methane,as a kind of high quality unconventional natural gas of energy territory in the future, is more and more widely used in life and industry.As far as the development of coalbed methane is concerned, it’s not only a rising merging industry, but also has brought a lot of problems from the considerable potential of growth, and some of risks appeared to hinder the pace of its process.So it is important to inspect and estimate the risk factor in the exploit, produce,environment and other aspects of development.This article is mainly carried on the analysis from the aspects of geological reasons, economic reasons and technical reasons, and try to find the factors that may affect the development of coal-bed gas of each link and to provide guidance for the establishment of a complete set of evaluation system. First, important achievements and progress at home and abroad about CBM evaluation are focused on and the possible risk factors from geological or process are summarized and classified in different analytical factors.Then these factors are examined to find out the very effective ones, and the quantitative or semi quantitative element are confirmed to built a simple evaluation system of risk assessment of coalbed methane as a reference. Finally, the corresponding model is established based on the fuzzy mathematics method, the empirical research on the coalbed methane development project is studied to assess the risk and some of the corresponding countermeasures are put forward as well.