China’s Rice Import Growth Volatility And Cause Analysis

China is a large country of rice production and consumption, rice is the most important food in China. In the varieties of food consumption, rice 、wheat、corn and soybeans are accounted for 90%, and rice is about 57.90%.For a long time, China’s food strategy puts the food security as the first priority. Obviously, rice has an important role in China’s food security.Though from the relative point of view, rice imports are accounted for less than 1% of the total domestic production of rice, but look from the absolute value, China’s rice imports are rising, especially after 2008, the Chinese rice surge in imports, in 2011 the Chinese rice express a net imports, and in 2012 rice net imports continually expand to 2.065 million tons which is a record levels. Now China has become the world’s second largest rice importer, a large number of imported rice is not only to cause import on the domestic rice market, but also to a certain extent threaten the food security of China. In this situation, the problems of how to continue to implement the long-term plan for the national food safety(2008-2020) "proposed" adhere to base on the basic depend to ensure domestic food supply "and how to let the rice imports grow relatively stability and orderly under the premise of irreversible rice import growth, are to be solved. In the view of this, to analyze the Chinese rice import growth volatility and influence factors has important practical significance.On the basis of economic theory(including economic cycle theory, the theory of supply and demand, etc.), the article use international trade, macroeconomics, statistics, and econometric knowledge to analyze the volatility characteristics of China’s rice import trade growth and the causes of fluctuation. First of all, a qualitative analysis is carried out for China’s rice import trade, and then the paper uses the relevant statistical methods and econometric method to quantitatively analyze the volatility characteristics of rice imports, and then from the macro to micro aspects, the paper through the establishment of the CMS model and VAR model to carry on the empirical analysis, discusses the main factors causing the Chinese rice import growth fluctuation and the influence direction and degree of various factors on China’s rice imports. Finally the article puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions according to the results of analysis.