| With the development of our economy and changes of climate and environment, how to reduce the pollution of the environment, and how to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has become increasingly subject to national attention, however, conventional coal-fired power pollution is serious, so as to high carbon emissions. The technology of circulation power combined with UCG can solve these problems, and also pays a lot of attentions to other countries. But because of UCG power generation projects affected by national policies, technical factors, market factors, the risk of uncertainty is high, so the use of traditional net present value method is very difficult to calculate the value of the investment project completely.The traditional net present value method only considers the static value, it lacks of flexibility, many people think that the uncertainty will reduce the value of the project, the value of future information is limited. In order to solve this problem,this paper proposes using the extanded net present value method to calculate the investment value of the project, introduce the physical option theory in underground coal gasification power generation projects, and establish the physical option pricing model of underground coal gasification power generation project.In the end,this paper make a evidence-based analysis, and calculate investment value of Datong UCG feasibility analysis by using traditional net present value method and physical option evaluation method, after comparative analyzing, we conclude that because of ignoring the uncertainty of the project and flexible value of the management in traditional investment decision method, so the value of project will be underestimated when assessing the high risk and great strategic significance project, and the method of physical option in the description of this kind of project is a relative advantage. It also provides a reference analysis for similar project evaluation. |
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