| With the adoption of 'reform and open to the outside world' policies, China's economic and social development has promoted the process of urbanization with urban boundaries keeping expanding, which has made the construction lands in great demand. Therefore, lands, as the carrier of urban development, have become scarce resources. Rural-urban land conversion has been the primary source of increasing urban buildings. To some extent, rural-urban land conversion provides lots of lands and promotes the economic prosperity and social development, but it also brings some disadvantages at the same time. For example, it threatens food security, damages the ecological environment, and affects the social stability, etc. This research attributes the main reason for these negative effects to the imperfect measurement system which is used to compensate agricultural lands. Therefore, it is an effective action to perfect the rural-urban land conversion system, if the option value of rural-urban land conversion is taken into the compensation calculation system, and if the rural-urban land conversion compensation policy is adjusted accordingly. This research estimates the option value of rural-urban land conversion scientifically, in the hope that it can provide a foundation for protecting agricultural land and farmers'rights, perfecting the rural-urban land conversion compensation measurement systems, and the decision-making of rural-urban land conversion.The research is conducted from the following four aspects:First of all, domestic and international researches on option value have been tracked and summarized. Through summing up the analysis of relevant research on the definition and discussion of the concept, size, symbols, measurement methods and application of option value, the research lays the foundation for the following study. The dissertation defines the concept of option value as the extra expense that the human will to pay for future use of resources.Second, the research defines the connotation of option value of rural-urban land conversion and illustrates its theoretical basis. This connotation is defined according to the features of rural-urban land conversion, irreversibility, uncertainty, and flexible time investment. That is, the farmers may benefit more, if they wait for the land prices rises and then convert the land use, than converting now. The gap between these two values is the "waiting" benefit, that is, the option value of rural-urban conversion. Third, the research carries out surveys in selected typical regions. According to the rural-urban land converting direction in homogeneous areas, it estimates the option value of rural-urban land conversion by using the methods of contingent valuation method (CVM), the net present value difference method and option pricing method. (1) By contingent valuation method (CVM), the research shows that farmers who will "wait and see" the land prices changes for one year and then make decisions to pay or to work out account for 60.51% of the total sample; the urban residents who will preserve the farmland in order to ensure the option to travel here in the coming year and protect the farmland to pay or to work out account for 75.94%. The research also shows the different results of option value predicted by different benefited groups with different value measurements. The objectivity and accuracy of estimating results are considered. The final value of the contingent valuation method (CVM) is 5.07 yuan/m2 based on the option value made with (WTP) by urban residents. Because the respondents can not distinguish the difference of WTP and WTA between different urban land uses, the option value of rural-urban land conversion to commercial land, residential land, industrial land is the same,5.07 yuan/m2. In addition, the contingent valuation method (CVM) uses the maximum likelihood estimation analyzes the factors affecting farmers'and urban residents'willingness to pay and get compensation in the double-bounded dichotomous contingent valuation method. And it uses multi-linear regression to analyze the factors affecting farmers'and urban residents'willingness to pay and willingness to accept in payment card contingent valuation method. Both results show that relevant socio-economic information have a significant effect on WTP and WTA of the farmers and urban residents, which accords with economic theory. Thus the effectiveness of CVM has been verified. (2) The theory of net present value difference method is easy to understand and simple to calculate, considering the possible changes of the urban land value between the initial investment and postponing converting. The research calculates the different option value of rural-urban land conversion in different directions. Among them, the option value is 54.73 yuan/m2 for rural-urban land conversion to commercial land; respectively,16.49 yuan/m2 and 10.55 yuan/m2 to residential and industrial land. (3) According to the characteristics of rural-urban land conversion and the corresponding classification criteria of options, the research defines the option of rural-urban land conversion as European call option. Option pricing method evaluates the option value of rural-urban land conversion by using classical B-S European option pricing formula, and the results show as the follows:the option value is 19.11 yuan/m2 for rural-urban land conversion to the commercial land; respectively 2.61 yuan/m2 and 4.96 yuan/m2 to residential and to industrial land. The analysis shows that the option value is affected by the current price of asset, the executive price and duration of option, the fluctuating rate of asset price, risk-free interest rate and the dividend yield. (4) The results produced by three methods have slight difference. As a result, by simply calculating the average of the three results, the research gets that:the option value is 26.30 yuan/m2 for rural-urban land conversion to the commercial land; 8.06 yuan/m2 and 6.86 yuan/m2 respectively to residential and industrial land. (5) According to different option values of rural-urban land conversion to different directions and the future probability of rural-urban land conversion to different directions, we obtain the comprehensive option value of rural-urban land conversion, the value is 7.53 yuan/m2.Finally, according to the verified results of the study and existing problems of rural-urban land conversion, the research puts forward some suggestions on policy making: (1) to establish special laws on land expropriation to ensure a legal basis; (2) to define agricultural land property rights, and to rationally distribute agricultural land compensation benefits; (3) to understand option value of rural-urban land conversion, and to improve the compensation standard for land expropriation; (4) to improve the social security system in rural areas, and to enrich agricultural land compensation patterns; (5) to strengthen supervision of land expropriation efforts, and to prevent adverse flows of compensation funds; (6) to broaden the way of judicial remedy, and to protect the legitimate rights and interests of landless farmers.
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