Optimization Of Energy Consumption Structure Based On Carbon Emissions Constraints

Rapid economic growth in Jiangsu Province is accompanied by high fossil energy consumption, negative ecological environment externalities, and poor quality of energy consumption structure. "Greenhouse effect" caused by energy environment pollution has made energy carbon emission become the focus of public attention. The environment pollution problem of energy consumption is worse and worse. Exploring the optimization of energy consumption structure is beneficial to balance the coordinated development of economic development and environmental protection, and to ensure the harmony of economic society and natural ecology.On the basis of relevant literature review, the article discusses the energy consumption structure and the current status of carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province, and then analyzes empirically the dynamic relationship between energy consumption and carbon emissions with SMM model in Jiangsu Province; based on the Transcendental Logarithmic Production Function, the article estimates the substitution elasticity of coal, oil, natural gas, and analyzes the influence of the internal energy alternative to the low carbon energy consumption structure change; through the Environment Learning Curve, predicts the amount of energy consumption and its carbon emission in 2020 in Jiangsu Province, then based on the internal energy alternative perspective, from the least amount of clean energy consumption and under the constraints of carbon and energy, the article analyzes empirically the optimization of energy consumption structure in Jiangsu Province based on the Carbon Pinch Technology; at last, under the empirical analysis results, combining with the actual situation of Jiangsu Province and learning from successful experience, the article puts forward effective policy to reduce energy carbon emissions, which provides reference for relevant departments to plan energy development strategy. The main research contents are as follows:(1) Analyzing the present situation of energy consumption structure and its carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province, finding that: the amount of energy consumption increasing, the energy consumption structure unbalanced and industrial energy consumption abnormal are all the problems of energy consumption structure in Jiangsu Province; energy carbon emissions present the situations that the energy carbon emissions are increasing year by year, and the per capita carbon emissions are increasing steadily; carbon intensity trends to decline; the carbon proportion of coal is still high, the carbon percentage of oil is lower, and the carbon proportion of natural gas increases slightly. The total deviation G- PS of Jiangsu Province is greater than zero, carbon growth is higher than the national energy consumption; the energy consumption structure is weak and the pressure of carbon emission is increasing continuously; the competitiveness of energy consumption structure is weak and the carbon emission index remains at 0.69-0.70 for a long time. These phenomena are due to Jiangsu Province using traditional fossil energy such as coal as the main energy consumption structure. Under the background of low carbon economy, energy consumption structure needs to be further optimized.(2) The empirical analysis results of energy internal alternative to low carbon energy consumption structure change show that: the output elasticity of coal and oil is rising, but the output elasticity of oil is higher than the output elasticity of coal, and the natural gas output elasticity is negative; the substitution elasticity among coal, oil and natural gas are all greater than 1; using oil and natural gas instead of coal contributes to reduce carbon emissions, and comparing to the oil instead of coal, gas instead of coal has greater contribution to carbon comprehensive coefficient and the change of total energy consumption and carbon reduction.(3) Optimization of the energy consumption structure in Jiangsu Province based on Carbon Pinch shows that: under 15% clean energy supply, overall carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province are lower than the initial energy supply, but still higher than the limited carbon emissions targets, so it’s unable to complete the carbon emissions reduction targets in 2020; under the constraints of total carbon emissions, total carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province is equal to the carbon emission limit, and its energy consumption structure includes clean energy(43.73%), coal(23.40%), oil(23.40%) and natural gas(24.00%); Taking the carbon emissions constraints of various industries into account, to meet the needs of various industries carbon emissions targets and balance energy demand, in the total energy supply, Jiangsu needs to consume 23.35% of the coal, all the oil and natural gas, 43.78% of clean energy, and the lower carbon emissions benefit from carbon pinch technology optimized better after refining industry category; dividing clean energy into low-carbon energy and zero-carbon energy, the article discusses the optimization of energy consumption structure based on the minimum number of low carbon energy, analyzing the carbon emissions constraints and the province’s energy demand in 2020, Jiangsu Province actual minimum low carbon energy needs 66.80× 105TJ(55.79%), zero carbon energy needs 6.7× 105 TJ(5.60%).(4) Based on the empirical analysis results, combining with the actual energy consumption of Jiangsu Province, and learning fully from successful experience, and on the basis of the advanced development experience at home and abroad for reference,the article puts forward on effective strategies and measures such as energy supply revolution, consumption revolution and institution revolution to optimize the energy consumption structure in Jiangsu Province, and the research suggestion can provide data support and theory reference for related departments to formulate energy planning and environmental policy.