Research On The Threshold Measurement Of The Impact Of Housing Price Fluctuation On The Consumption Level Of Urban Residents In Heilongjiang Province

Since China's reform and opening,the urbanization process,the consumption level of urban residents and the real estate industry have undergone tremendous changes.The impact of real estate price fluctuations on the consumption level of urban residents has both a wealth effect and a crowding-out effect.Under such circumstances,studying the specific impact of real estate price fluctuations on urban residents' consumption expenditure and the impact coefficient will help the government formulate policies to ensure stable economic development.This article analyzes real estate data and consumption data of residents in Heilongjiang Province,and discusses the mechanism of housing price fluctuations on consumption levels.First,a review of Chinese and foreign literature is made,and the theoretical basis for analyzing the impact of housing prices on consumption levels is clarified.Secondly,from the statistical yearbook,the data of real estate investment and consumption level of urban residents in Heilongjiang Province from 2005 to2017 were collected,and the correlation analysis of real estate prices and consumption levels showed that the two were positively related.In order to further explore the impact mechanism of housing prices on consumption level,the third chapter of this paper selects four variables of per capita cash consumption,average price of commercial housing,per capita disposable income of urban residents and per capita GDP to construct a vector autoregressive model.Through the cointegration test and Granger causality test,the results show that house price fluctuations are the key factors that affect the consumption level,and the impact on the consumption level is second only to disposable income.Afterwards,impulse response andvariance decomposition prove that the impact of rising house prices on residents' consumption levels is positive.Chapter 4 In order to explore the consumption of urban residents in different real estate price growth ranges,using 12 prefecture-level cities in Heilongjiang Province,according to the establishment of a threshold panel model to explore the consumption of urban residents in each different threshold interval Changes in impact.The results show that when housing prices rise at a moderate rate,housing prices will bring wealth effects to residents.But when house prices rise too fast,the wealth effect tends to weaken.Through empirical analysis,it is concluded that to prevent housing prices from rising too fast and negatively affecting residents' consumption levels,this article puts forward three policy recommendations.First reform the land transfer system to increase housing supply and increase supply.Secondly,guide the residents to the correct consumption concept,and do not speculate on housing or blindly follow suit.Maintain market demand at a healthy and reasonable level.Finally,regulate the credit market and crack down on illegal loans.Give priority to residents who just need it.