The Impact Of Expected And Unexpected Monetary Policy On Investment Efficiency Of Real Estate Listed Companies

Monetary policy is an important means of macroeconomic regulation and co ntrol in our country. After the revolution of rational expectations, expection has become the important factor that affect monetary policy analysis and formulation. The public’s expectations of monetary policy will affect the effect of monetary policy. Under the big background that C hina’s economic growth is mainly driven by investment, but the efficiency of investment is low, the problem of corporate investment efficiency is becoming more and more important. Researching how the expected and unexpected monetary policy impact on corporate investment efficiency can reflect the game relationship between the company as a micro main body and monetary policy as a macro main body. To guide the public expected rationalization can enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy. It also has an important significance to improve investment efficiency and promote the healthy and rapid development of the company. Chinese real estate industry has become a pillar industry of national economy. As capital- intensive industries, real estate companies are more susceptible to monetary policy. Therefore, this article selects the listed company of real estate in our country as the research object.In this paper, starting from the monetary policy theory, expectation theory and corporate investment efficiency theory, the influence of expectation factors on the effectiveness of monetary policy are analyzed and emphasize the importance of studying expected and unexpected monetary policy. The monetary policy transmission way is combined with corporate investment efficiency factors. Secondly, this paper selects 36 listed real estate companies in China as the research sample, use DEA model to measure the real estate investment efficiency of listed companies and use ARIMA model to forecast the monetary policy indicator. Building dynamic panel data regression model for the measurement test. The empirical results show that the monetary policy and real estate company investment efficiency exist significant correlation. Central Banks can improve the investment efficiency of real estate companies through the monetary policy. Expected and unexpected monetary policy can both impact on the investment efficiency of real estate companies. Debt has incentive effect on the investment of the real estate companies. Finally, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions, like improving the transparency of monetary policy, making targeted monetary policy, improving the mechanism of corporate governance.