A Study On The Risk Early-warning Of Real Estate Securitization

In recent years, the development of real estate industry mainly relies on bank loans, and the banks’ credit policy has played a restrictive role for it. So we can say that the difficulty of financing has become a bottleneck for the development of real estate. At the point, real estate securitization becomes an important way to solve the problem. The pilot of it is under way after 2005. After a process of stagnation and restart, especially the new policy of People’s Bank of China, the development of real estate securitization will be a trend, which seems irresistible.There will inevitably be some risks in the process of real estate securitization, so the risk early warning for it appears very important. Therefore, we are committed to build a risk early warning system for real estate securitization.The research methods in the paper are document research, comparative study and the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. First of all, we identify the risks of real estate securitization from the perspective of system and non-system. Allowing for the background of the financial crisis and the new features of commercial banks, we build the index system of risk early warning which is based on commercial banks and determine the corresponding intervals. Finally, we build the operation flow of the risk early warning system, which is made up of risk identification module, processing module and measure module.In the paper, we choose Jianyuan 2007-1 of China Construction Bank as example for the case study. Based on the three modules, we analyze the main risks, processing module and risk measures of Jianyuan 2007-1.Although the related data is not complete, we hold that the risk of Jianyuan 2007-1 is in a controllable and normal state. With the implementation of the new policy of People’s Bank of China, real estate securitization will be promoted to a larger scale, so we can’t underestimate the risk early warning system of real estate securitization and must take it seriously enough.