Research On Real Estate Listed Companies' Financing Risk Early-warning System

Real estate industry is the pillar industry of national economy in our country,it has a long industry chain with wide business scope.At the critical moment of the structural reform of China's industry,it has important significance to ensure the stability of the real estate industry in order to promote the development of macro economy and consolidate the financial security.As house prices rising too fast in recent years,there are growing signs of a property bubble in the real estate market.With the macro-regulation policies being published one after another,the real estate financing channels is getting tighten,the listed real estate companies are faced with the phenomena of coexistence of the high growth with the difficult and expensive financing.How to grab the timing of the industry rapid growth to cut inventories,broaden the financing channels in strict macroeconomic environment,reduce the financing cost and control the financing risk to maintain the stability of the capital chain at the same time are the immediate problems which the listed real estate companies need to solve.Through in-depth analysis of the real estate industry's characteristics and present condition of the financing risk,this thesis intends to find out the cause and conduction mechanism of the listed real estate company's financing risk,and on this basis,design the index system of the listed real estate companies' financing risk,build financing risk early-warning and management matrix,achieve the positioning of the risks.This thesis hopes to provide the reference of the prevention and control of financing risk for our listed real estate companies.The main content of this thesis include:(1)Designing the index of financing risk early-warning system for listed real estate companies.Based on the current situation and conduction mechanism of listed real estate companies' financing risk,this thesis studies the influencing factors of financing risk from both of the external environment which includes economic cycle,financial policy and demand-supply structure,and the internal finance which includes financing structure,debt service pressure and cash flow management.This thesis schemes out the environmental index system and the financial index system of the financing risk respectively.(2)Counting the single index and the comprehensive index of the early warning of listed real estate companies' financing risk.This thesis applies the logistic regression analysis and grey correlation analysis on the financing risk financial index system and the financing risk environmental index system to filter the indexes.Then using the index measure model to transform the financing risk warning index into the financing risk individual index.Using analytic hierarchy process(AHP)to synthesize the financing risk warning comprehensive index from the financing risk individual index.(3)Processing the positioning of our real estate industry's financing risk warning.Using the financing risk financial warning comprehensive index and the financing risk environmental warning comprehensive index as abscissa and ordinate to build the management matrix of the financing risk warning for our listed real estate companies,and to process the positioning of financing risk warning.The innovations of this thesis are as follow:(1)Using the matrix positioning method in the listed real estate companies' financing risk warning,and realizing the visualization and materialization of the listed companies' risk level.(2)Using the logistic regression analysis and grey correlation analysis in the index screening,avoiding the subjectivity in the design of the financing risk warning index system.(3)Considering the financing environmental risk and the financing financial risk separately when designing the index as well as when building the model.Through the risk warning management matrix,this thesis combines the financing environmental risk and the financing financial risk into one organically.The situation of the listed real estate companies' financing risk is fully reflected,it is convenient to traces and check the financing risk positioning and risk factors of back,which makes the warning model more practical.