Study On The Early-warning Systematic Of Real Estate Market Risk

Nowadays, because the government exercised a series of severe policies to prevent Over-heat development of real estate,the market like a flower blossoms trembled in the wind. An adjustment time has coming. Some people can't see a clearly future. In order to evaluate the situation of urban real estate,this paper establish an urban real state early-warning system.The paper has 3 sectors: first, summing up the present situation of real estate market, and mention that the real estate market has up to snuff by the adjustment of macroeconomic; secondly, researching on the theory of real estate market risk, so it can provide the theoretic basic for building the real estate market risk estimate system; thirdly, setting up and operating the real estate market risk estimate system of Xiamen. In the respect of the method choice, this paper chooses the Stat. early-warning method, and divides the guideline system to three classes, which own Leading Indicator, Coincident Indicator and Lagging Indicator; this paper adopts fourteen kinds index to building the system. For forecasting different warning index, this article takes index smooth method, uses scientific method to do the compositive estimate finally. The later part, we estimate Xiamen real estate market by this system. We have the conclusion that the real estate market of Xiamen was healthy in essence, but there were some risks in the real estate market of Xiamen in 2007, and by the adjustment of macroeconomic, the situation is alleviative, but it also need further regulation.According to opinions from analyzing the steps and method of establish China's urban real estate early-warning system, this paper establishes Xiamen real estate early-warning system, hoping to do something useful for the healthy development of China's real estate market.