Research On The Investment Risk Management Of China Railway Passenger-dedicated Lines

The railway construction investment in China grows rapidly in recent years. As a new round of "micro-stimulus" policies, railway construction makes significant difference in economic development. However, due to changes of objective factors and limitations of people’s subjective forecast estimates, in the construction field, especially in the construction of passenger dedicated line, the results of investment projects often do not meet people’s estimates. The investment risk and uncertainty are objectively existed. Correct assessment and analysis of investment risk of PDL projects are of great significance to domestic railway construction market development.This paper identifies, estimates and evaluates PDL projects’investment risk by using expert investigation method, empirical analysis and case analysis. By applying the AHP-CIM risk evaluation method to Jinwen railway project, it can be found that project risk mainly distributes in the risk level of "relatively small" and "small", with the probability of 21.75% and 76.42%, respectively. Cost risk is relatively prominent and requires special attention. Quality risk and environmental risk need to be focused on. Security risk and duration risk are relatively minor.In the end, policy suggestions against PDL projects’ investment risk are proposed to provide relative ideas of risk management, including good pre-planning, grasping the breakeven point accurately, cost control and standardized quality management.